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May 12, 09 - 02:01 pm Comment from: Crabs

Actually 900% growth on 2 million would be 36 million.

Because 100% growth means you double the number sold (eg, if I sell one glass of lemonade one day, and the next day my sales increase by 100%, the second day I sold 2 glasses of lemonade).

So to get to 900% you have to get 9 times as much growth as if you had 100% growth (which is double), so you're actually getting 18 times the amount initially sold.

Now, if they had said Android will ship 900% of its unit shipments the previous year, you would be correct. But if it's 900% GROWTH, it's actually 18 times more units shipped.

May 12, 09 - 02:08 pm Comment from: JAYGEE

Sweet. I hope Android does well and becomes one of the top mobile operating systems.

May 12, 09 - 02:10 pm Comment from: John Crawford

@Crabs

For $6,999 you can check whether you or MDN are right!

May 12, 09 - 02:11 pm Comment from: Brett Zuniga

This is why percentages in market predictions are my pet peeve. Most of these guys are barely qualified to predict what they'll be wearing the next day, much less covering Fortune 500 companies. Just give me some actual numbers with the words "delivered" and "predicted".

May 12, 09 - 02:12 pm Comment from: Crabs

Also, saying that they sold 2 million in the first year because they sold 1 million the first six months is just asinine. If you don't have actual annual statistics, you can't give an annual sales number. The growth could have accelerated or decelerated in the second half of the year, meaning it could be a lot more or a lot less than 2 million units.

I'm not saying that Android will outstrip the iPhone. Personally, I think this report seems to be based on absolutely nothing, except the fact that more manufacturers will be making Android phones. Just because more people make it, doesn't mean more people will buy them.

What I am saying is: If you're going to use numbers, make them the right numbers. Otherwise, make up some other smarmy take, or just don't put in a take at all.

May 12, 09 - 02:12 pm Comment from: zmarc

Total BS prediction. No way Android sells anything close to that. I'd be surprised if they can keep up existing growth rate: the G1 sold well initially, but the demand has died off. And it has weak developer support which will get worse without an audience to develop for, especially with 30+ million iPhone/iPod touch users and growing.

May 12, 09 - 02:14 pm Comment from: Cubert

900%?!?!?!?

iCal this one folks. This guy is way off!

18 million or 36 million—are these new smartphone users, or are they switching from another smartphone OS? At least some are switchers. It will be interesting to see who vendors, operators and customers drop in favour of Android.

May 12, 09 - 02:15 pm Comment from: Jersey_Trader

Sorry Crabs, the math is correct and your school did not do their you very well.

May 12, 09 - 02:28 pm Comment from: silverwarloc

Simple example:
2008: sold 1,000,000 (remember, this is an example)
2009: 900% of 2008
1. convert 900% to decimal. In this case, move the decimal two places to the left to get 9.0.
2. multiply 1,000,000 by 9 you get 9 million.

But that is not realistic when it comes to the Android. If you try to align androids numbers with the iphone numbers, you will realize that these analysts are smoking something stronger than crack.

Crabs,

Not sure what school you learned statistics from, but..... 18 times initial sales appears to be off significantly. I believe that to calculate future unit sales based on 900% (i.e. 900 per 100) growth, you would apply the following:

growth = (2 million / 100) * 900 = 18 million

future unit sales = initial units sold (2) + growth (18) = 20 million

Please correct me if I am mistaken....

It appears your school didn't do their job very well either.... in terms of language or statistics.

According to MDN's calculations, 100% growth would result in the same number of units sold as the previous year. In most statistics books, that is actually 0% growth.

May 12, 09 - 02:46 pm Comment from: Demon

Don't see Android growing that much. Their are just not that many good Android phones in the market. The G1 well sucked and the second HTC is phone is not doing as well as the G1 and no one else has released an Android based smart phone as of yet and the first half of 2009 is all but gone. Android might break 100% growth in 2009 with 4 million units from the various vendors that manage to get an Android based phone out in 2009. It's not likely that all Android will pass iPhone in Available Applications or even customer and business acceptance. Android phones are going to be limited to the consumer market for the foreseeable future. Customer value for the money will still be with the iPhone and not with Android.
Palm and Microsoft are both so far behind that I don't think ether will make their sales goals in 2009 or 2010. RIM is going to be a battle with Apple and this is going to suck their Available cash away from their bread and butter product development which will but RIM in a bad cash place and cause their margins to shrink even more. RIM will be a money losing or breaking even company by the end 2009 and 2010 we'll see their marketshare number contract by 20% 2010 and 50% more in 2011.
Microsoft has one shot at remaining relevant in the smart phone market and that is to buy Palm and combine Palm's WebOS and the Danger OS and ditching the crusty Win Mobile that they are currently using. But, Microsoft will need to move fast because if the Palm Pre hit's the streets Palm will have some growth in sales and that might be enough for Palm to hold on to hope and resist a MS buyout.

Correct. Growth is relative, if you grow from an infant to a midget . . . get the point? Apple's iphone is growing from an infant - into a 7 foot giant. What stunts Androids growth is non-homogenous hardware. You cant necessarily build an app that works on every phone due to hardware requirements which vary, and change at different paces. If your choice of hardware platform doesn't progress in 2 years, you're stuck along with it. Same can be said for the iphone, but the iphone has a humongous app advantage immediately.

Analyst:"900% growth"
Clueless:"Competition is good"

"Competition is good" is probably an American saying. Funny, in asian countries, they try to outdo themselves (Honda's stair climbing, running robot anyone?) here, we have to be forced by a 'competitor' to do better and innovate. That's why I think Apple and Steve Jobs are the greatest American company ever. They simply do their best.
(actually, a lot of anime frequently has the saying 'do your best' in it)

Future value = present value times (1 + growth rate expressed as decimal)

Both calculate to 20 million

Just found via Kenrockwellcom
"The Japanese meet a couple of times a year to discuss which companies will go into what markets with what products and features. This helps them avoid needless competition and to focus on their individual strengths so they all benefit.

This is why both Canon and Nikon DSLRs magically added video within about a week of each other, even though this takes years to develop. It's not chance, it's planned. It's OK in Japan, even though in the USA this is prohibited by anti-trust laws."

So, our anti-trust laws prevent corruption, but also stifle innovation?

May 12, 09 - 03:03 pm Comment from: Crabs

Actually, we were both wrong, it's actually 10X growth, not 18.

Let me walk you through this.

If you sell one hundred (100) units in one period of time, and in the second period of time, you increase your sales by 25%. In other words, you get 25% growth, then you have sold 125 units. If you increase your sales by 50%, in other words, you get 50% growth, then you have sold 150 units.

If you increase your sales by 100%, in other words, you get 100% growth, then you have sold 200 units. You have doubled the amount of units sold. Now, if you increase your sales by 150%, in other words, 150% growth, you have 2.5X your initial sales. You have sold 250 units.

So, the formula is, when expressed as y=secondary units sold, x=initial units sold, and m=percentage growth as expressed in decimal form:

y=(1+m)x

So, for this case, we plug in the numbers

y=(1+9.00)2 million

y=20 million.

I'll admit I was wrong, it's been since my junior year in high school that I've had to do anything but the most basic math because I tested out of having to take math in college. But MDN was also wrong, and should fix their math.

C - 20 million... final answer

('simple' was the magic word)

@Crabs

Yup - 20M is the correct number. Kudos for correcting yourself.

Methinks there will have to be a few more Android phones available to get to 20M this year. Apple have the advantage that they sell one model (maybe two in a few months) and their R&D;and manufacturing costs will be recovered quickly. Android manufacturers will split that revenue between them. In the short term it could hurt the platform.

Of cource they may do a 2 for 1 deal just like RIM. But where's the profit in that?

May 12, 09 - 03:19 pm Comment from: Krioni

@Crabs:
In your corrected math, you are correct, as long as the word "growth" is defined the way you use it. I believe that yours is the correct definition, but you never know what the original speaker meant, since by saying "900% growth," a somewhat less-than-careful person _might_ have meant "9x as much." In a perfect world you are now correct, but who knows what the $6,999 report actually meant. We really can't trust most "journalists" to pass on an accurate accounting of what was said, even if we trust this almost certainly overpriced "analysis."

Moral of the story: garbage in = garbage out, no matter how good your formula is.

Herewith the Math (again):

Android
Given: 2M sls units ly, proj growth for 2009 = 900%
Sls TY = 2M+(2M*900%)
= 20,000,000 units
iPhone
Give: 3,675K sls units ly, proj gowth for 2009 = 76%
Sls TY = 3,675K+(3,675K*76%)
= 24,068,000 units

Difference = 4,068,000 more iPhones than Android phones... Add iPod touches to the mix, iPhone OS will still lead by +20 million devices in 2009, taking the installed base to over 60, million devices. I know which platform I would develop for if I were a developer.

But, if Google only sold one phone this year that means they will only sell 9 (or 18) next year.

So apparantly somebody is fibbing.

That's infinity% since 2007, guys!!!! What impressive numbers!!!

Let's see how well the iPhone sells when 3rd party cell operators (including T-Mobile) are allowed in the club.

If android phones sells 20 million (up from 1+ million) and iPhone is 25 million (very conservative with v3.0 arriving soon) and I do not see RIM falling behind with Verizon giving away blackberries and few new customers then something as to give. Bye Palm. Bye Windows Mobile.

Of course Android is going to grow. Someone released a second phone using the OS.

It's amount to the low jumping-off point.
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