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I also considered buying a Zune. For about 1 nanosecond.

i don't care about those.
i ordered my iPod shuffle today. and i already have a 40GB one.

As an iPod owner, (20GB 3rd Gen, 4GB 1st Gen Nano) I find this study very hard to believe. I don't see any features of the Zune that would convince me to buy it instead of the current 30Gb iPod.

Did they only question people in some sort of mental health facility?

read the fine print. they polled republicans.

I've taken a survey like this and the questions are often loaded. It could say something like: "Would you like a player that wirelessly shares music with your friends?" without explaining the zune's limitations.

That's crap. iPod related or not, it's quite obvious that being explicitly shown something and having it described to you is going to put that product in your mind. What would the percentages be if they just used the description "portable music player"? I bet the vast majority would say iPod, for most people that's all they know. Of course, once Zune advertising kicks in who is to say that they can't raise awareness? Maybe they will sell, but the way they went about that seems flawed.

The problem with these studies is that they assume Apple is standing still and resting on its laurels. With Jobs at the helm, that is hardly the case.

oh that figures.:
"read the fine print. they polled republicans."

why must you show your idiocy.

No, they polled people who, considering it's a non-shipping product, have no clue what they're talking about, to put it kindly.

Even though you like the chicken burrito, would you consider trying a steak burrito on your next purchase?

The question might have been:

Q1. Mobile phones can play MP3s, along with iPods and Zunes. Do you plan to buy an MP3 player other than iPod in the next year?

It seems to be a manipulative survey by pooling Zunes with all other MP3 players. Ask people honestly "Do you plan to buy a Zune?". If they don't ask honestly, I must assume the survey is being paid for and therefore not worthy of trust.

Competitors must be much better, cheaper or redefine the game. This is why Macintoshes are beating PCs in growth and the same goes for any other product. iPods are better, not cheaper, but redefine our uses of music-PDAs.

The 58% who were seriously considering buying Zune instead of iPod were
a) over 30
b) not iPod owners
c) not Mac owners
That was not a multiple choice, by the way, unless the answer was "d) all the above". I may be over 30 - twice - and not particularly dedicated to "cool", but I know second-rate when I see it. Zune barely qualifies for that rating.

It's interesting how they have to parse the market on these things. The Zune can't compete with the nano or the shuffle, and these make up the bulk of iPod sales, don't they? So ... they only asked about Zune vs 80GB iPod?

Someone should sue them for misrepresenting the significance of their results.
MW = program - what they should "get with"

dogfriend

They conducted the survey from the readership of such apple hate sites as ipodsucks macsucks and dieappledie

Kinda pathetic that only 58% of the sight members would consider switching. I thought the number would be much higher

Balanced like MSNBC is. Uh huh.

This data is completely meaningless unless we know if they would consider any other MP3 player as well. If 50-some-odd percent said they would be 'somewhat likely' to consider a Sansa, for example, then we could draw some conclusions, because we know how many people actually *buy* them. We don't know how many people will actually buy a Zune because they haven't sold a single one of 'em yet.

-c

MW: "their" (means something belonging to 'them'. 'They're' is a contraction of 'they are'. This is something that is no longer taught in school.)

Oh wow... this is another one of those deals where you can play with facts to say anything......

"58% of iPod owners planning another MP3 purchase will consider Zune"

There could be a LOT of lies in that title.... such as... 58% of all iPod owners that were planning to replace their iPod with some different MP3... but not telling you that only .0001% of iPod owners actually want to replace their iPod with some other MP3.... 58% of .0001% is like 10 people :o) (or should I call them idiots)

"Apple needs a new high-end device that works really well and looks really cool, because other brands are catching up."

Uh, Apple already has one of those. While I do believe that Apple needs to keep evolving the iPod line with occassional significant additions, they do not need a new iPod line on top of the current one. At least this person knows that the ease of use is a parameter that is important here.

Note: I believe the iPhone is separate line, even if it has a music player functionality. I suppose that this could be a top end device if they go for 40-80 GB, but I suspect it will be flash based for size considerations. Therefore, I believe it is a distinct line.

This is a text book example of how to effectively poll lemmings.

"Considering" and buying are not the same thing. Each of the two times I bought an iPod, I considered other options. I still bought the iPod.

Well, of course you might consider it, same as you might consider options for lunch.

Doesn't mean a thing.

I like how "somewhat likely" users and "extremely likely" users are lumped together to get one big number. The break down has to be skewed heavily toward the "somewhat likely" crowd for them to do that - otherwise "extremely likely" users would be mentioned first or by themselves. I laugh at your statistics. Ha!

I have two iPods, and would consider replacing them with another type of mp3 player... an iPhone!

This survey proves that if you have enough money, you can buy virtually any result you want.

Note to Microsoft - Buying wierd pole results will just set you up for a major let down when the real sales figures roll in. Don't worry though, just look at the inflated sales figures that you will be releasing to the press. They will make you feel happy again.

"Lies, damn lies, and statistics" Sufficiently motivated, I can structure a survey that will say whatever I want it to say. Expect Microsoft to run a massive marketing campaign to drive interest in Zune. Those with no previous exposure to a portable player done right (i.e. iPod) will suffer its flaws and limitations thinking that's how it is (kinda' like Windows users). Those with iPod experience will not move to Zune. No how, no way.

Everybody post your best guess. How long untill the first virus appears on the Zune? I am talking about the Zune being infected by a virus not being used to carry one.

I would consider a Microsoft Windows PC IF it was BETTER than a Mac. Since it isn't, I won't buy one.

I won't buy an iPod just because it's an iPod. It needs to be the best product that suits my needs, and be reliable. I think a lot of people all into this category, and probably answered more along those lines, but of course, the survey questions were worded such that you couldn't respond in that manner. You could only say you were "somewhat likely" or "extremely likely" to consider the Zune.

Many people who are in the market will take a look. And most will choose the iPod, because it's a better product.

bring on the boys!!!

T J,

well observed! It's a clever play on words. This 'study' has been paid for by a certain well-known software company.

All other market research that I've seen comes to the opposite conclusion.

This is a typical silly example of comparing:
1. What Microsoft says they will produce in the future, even if not completely well defined
with
2. What Apple has on the market TODAY (not what they will have on the market in the same future)

People I've encountered who make this illogical comparison frequently come to the conclusion that Microsoft's future vaporware will be superior to Apple's old products, which is hardly a very interesting conclusion.

-- Tom

The poll isn't worth a jot.

If I asked any mobile owner if they would consider buying another brand when they upgraded or replaced, they would all say yes - up until the thing is released and they have a chance to play with it and check out the features. Ask the question when its on the shelves and the customers have seen what it offers.

Then of course the iPhone will release next Janurary and they will then feel cheated ( and stupid for looking at an M$ rebadged gigabeat)

lol, I hope Microsoft's marketing machine is basing serious decisions on questionable market research like this. They're sure to fail miserably.

To Bobby,"I've taken a survey like this and the questions are often loaded. It could say something like: "Would you like a player that wirelessly shares music with your friends?"

I agree. Surveys can be make to say what ever you want them to say. Zune squirting may be interesting, depending on what you can squirt (text message??? kids would love that with no phone charges, but---) but until there are enough Zunes out there to squirt to some one else, its just a useless feature.

Useless, do you hear me, useless. HaHaHa....

I only see an iPod on rare occasions so I expect to see a Zune, next to never. (maybe when pigs fly??? )

N.

The very fact we are discussing such a poll and such silly iPod FUD is cause for concern. There is already a drumbeat of energy pointing at the Z, and I've already heard radio hosts saying, "our programe is available as a podcast, for those of you with iPods or other compatible devices, we don't want to promote one device over another here..."

Showing that the culture is already absorbing this onslaught of Z promotion, making everyone aware that there is a "viable alternative to the iPod." (QUotes reperesent the mentality that I see taking shape everywhere.)

It's baseless, and it's pervasive, and it's worrisome.

So who commissioned the study? Are they doing it out of the goodness of their hearts?

I've done market research before, and I could build a survey for you that will conclude that 90% of 20 year old college women find Steve Ballmer hot and would want to have sex with him even if he wasn't worth $15 billion.

Without detailed information on sample selection and survey design, this is completely meaningless. Also, who paid for the survey?

Apple needs to improve the durablity and reliablity of the iPod.

Oh look, a survey.

Meh.

Zune is not iPod and it's just not going to be as popular - or even 1/10th as popular - as the iPod is. 2007 is the year that Microsoft falls flat on it's face with it's Vista/Zune folly.

/the bigger they are the harder they fall

Also, the headline on this report is misleading. It probably should read "58% WOULD consider Microsoft's Zune"

The is a very bg difference between WILL and WOULD. If I am shopping for anything, I theoretically would consider many products on the market if I haven't made a decision yet. If I have some kind of opinion already (positive or negative), I WILL consider specific products.

I WOULD also consider a Zune in the future if it doesn't suck and offers more value than an iPod.

Since that is highly unlikely, I probably WILL not consider it.

I got my iPod shuffle today. It's very cool. It's so tiny. It's definitely been a conversation piece at the office today.

Most respondents in the 2004 exit polls said they did not vote for G.W. Bush.

See a trend.

Where is the number that said they were likely to buy another mp3 player. you can fudge the numbers any way you like - iPod owners lets say 1500 of the 1725 surveyed own iPods - how many of those said they were planning wanting to buy another mp3 player? where is this number? was it 4 of them and 2 might want a zune? These numbers mean nothing

The main issue here is the following:

Of the entire MP3 market, only 10% - 15% are hard-drive-based, while 85% of the market is flash-based.

So unless 85% of the market is suddenly considering going to hard-drive-based models, this survey makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, and looks highly M$ focused.

The survey takes vaporware and tries to compare it with a shipping product - completely bogus and researchers know this.

Bottom Line: This research firm is simply trying to grab headlines and make a name for itself. It's done that, but it's research will bear out to be completely bogus.

Well of course everyone that hears about the zune will consider it. Just reading a horrible review of the zoon is considering it. I know I did. I thought hmmm considering the zoom instead of another ipod..no way. So what this tells me is 58% of ipod owners have heard of the zune, have thought about it and then went on to consider something else, anything else. I just can't see this thing appealing to anyone but diehard microsoft zombies.

Apple better update the iPod, or they could find themselves in Iraq.

Zune is going to choke and die shortly after birth.

Next.

58% of Windows Butt Monkey Lemming Fan Dork MS Cult of Blind Ignorance Members™, maybe.

What a load of FUD.


Paleezzzze.

I'm in the research business and an article in a research trade journal just crossed my desk:

"Research Reveals Alarming Incidence of "Undesireable" Online Panelists"

Main Point of the article: Roughly 14% of online panelists fall into one or both of two undesirable categories: Frauds and Mental Cheaters (i.e. strong satisficers).

Article goes on to discuss the folly of online research if you aren't screening out these participants. Online research needs to be taken with a very big dose of skepticism.

Again, just WAIT until current "Plays For Sure" supporters find out FIRSTHAND that they can't transfer (or squirt) ANY of their purchased music into the iTurd!

MonkeySoft may acquire brand new customers (with no already-purchased music) that just don't want to be part of the iPod landslide, but I guarantee you they won't win over many (any?) of the "PFS" crowd! They're going to be one angry bunch, I assure you!

MS = "We'll support you until we don't want to any more."

Who paid the survey?

Does anyone else find this odd?

"1725 teenage and adult US residents were asked whether they planned to buy an MP3 player in the next 12 months. Of those responding that they were likely to do so, 58% of those identifying themselves as existing iPod owners..."

The key words here: "Of those responding that were likely to do so..."

Notice they never tell how many <u>actually</u> responded out of the 1725 that were asked. The percentages that follow are meaningless because you can't derive any real numbers from them. Total FUD.