Tech stocks sink on Cisco concerns, Fed’s economic worries

“U.S. stocks extended losses for a second day Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke painted a perilous economic outlook and worries about Cisco Systems Inc.’s quarter helped fuel a sell-off in the technology sector,” Kate Gibson reports for MarketWatch.

“At 2 p.m. Eastern, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: 13,132.00, -168.02, -1.3%) was off 121.9 points, or 1%, to 13,175.2, with 18 of its 30 components lower. American International Group Inc. (AIG: 54.52, -3.38, -5.8%) and IBM (IBM: 105.15, -5.93, -5.3%) fronted the slide, with both blue chips down nearly 6%. The S&P 500 ($SPX: 1,458.54, -17.08, -1.2%) fell 12.63 points, or 0.8%, to 1,462.99, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP: 2,669.16, -79.60, -2.9%) fell 69.13 points, or 2.6%, to 2,679.63,” Gibson reports.

“Shares of Cisco (CSCO: 30.03, -2.72, -8.3%) shares fell 8.1%. Late Wednesday, the tech bellwether reported a 37% increase in first-quarter profit yet still sparked concern with a forecast implying that it won’t meet Wall Street expectations for the current quarter,” Gibson reports. “Cisco was pegged for sparking a decline in technology stocks at large.”

“Big losses in Google Inc. (GOOG: 691.13, -41.81, -5.7%) , Research in Motion Ltd. (RIMM: 121.42, -11.61, -8.7%) and Apple Inc. (AAPL: 174.50, -11.80, -6.3%) reflect an increase in risk aversion, on a global scale, as investors reassess their willingness to hold risky assets all the way from Shanghai to Wall Street,” said Frederic Ruffy, analyst at Optionetics,” Gibson reports.

“In prepared testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, Bernanke said the economy faces risks from the housing market’s slump as well as from a possible surge in inflation, the lower dollar and higher oil costs. Read The Fed,” Gibson reports. “Bernanke’s comments further fueled worries about the extent of the credit crunch and subprime-related mortgage problems plaguing banks and other financial institutions.”

Full article here.

61 Comments

  1. If AAPL at 191 was too rich for your blood, AAPL at 175 is a bargain and a great opportunity to get in before the Jan-17-2008 earnings for Christmas quarter are announced.

    Germany is projecting sellouts of iPhones and it is no doubt AAPL will have a STELLAR quarter. (that is saying something as ever quarter for the past 3 years has been STELLAR)

  2. “Imagine how well AAPL would be doing if Bush hadn’t f*cked up our country in just about every way possible.”

    Don’t blame him, blame the people who support him and the people who backed his campaigns. I don’t think the man himself has enough smarts to fsck up a wet dream.

  3. Bush? Is everything unpleasant in the world going to be blamed on him?

    Perhaps all children would be above average if he hadn’t been president. Perhaps I’d be taller and more muscular if he hadn’t been president. Perhaps winter days would be longer and the wind wouldn’t blow so much if he hadn’t been president.

    Sounds like someone needs counseling and medication before causing a stroke the blocks the flow of blood to the ten remaining brain cells.

    Can we stick to Apple topics instead of politics? We’ll have quite enough exposure to politics in the months ahead. I’m already getting nauseated.

  4. The whole reason for this current economic concern is because Bush has been f*cking everything up in this country, and the bill is due. Anyone who isn’t nervous because of Bush’s actions since he’s been president is not paying attention. That’s why the stocks are behaving as they are – RIGHT NOW. The bet isn’t IF the economy will enter a recession based on Bush’s failure’s as a president, but WHEN.

  5. The people you need to blame are..

    ….the banks, derivative traders and the rest.

    The reason? In one word GREED.

    They have f_cked things up as you put it because they threw out risk assessment to keep earning ever bigger bonuses…

    Don’t credit politicians with the ability to achieve so much..

  6. dco
    I think I would buy before then, if in the short run, to sell off after the next rise from the British/German expansion.

    Macromancer
    Most regulars here know who sits on what side of the fence.
    G-Spank is a lib, and doesn’t try to hide it. Big deal.
    What are you trying to hide?

    And the economy for the past 25 years has been modeled on Reagan, regardless of who was sitting in office.

  7. Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
    2-Oct-00 26.69 26.75 23.50 24.25 86,610,600 12.12
    29-Sep-00 28.19 29.00 25.37 25.75 265,069,000 12.88
    28-Sep-00 49.31 53.81 48.13 53.50 34,988,200 26.75
    27-Sep-00 51.75 52.75 48.25 48.94 14,370,000 24.47

  8. Ummmm.. noo Jocko, Bush 1 left us in a serious recession. Reganomics left us with a record-breaking National Debt (that record has since been shatter by Bush 2).

    Clinton left us with a booming economy, and a budgetary surplus.

    While the economic problems we face cannot be pegged entirely on Bush’s ineptitude, the priorities of his administration have undoubtedly put us in a worse place than where we were.

  9. No, actually, we’re all to blame for this one. We, the whole world economy, but primarily the US consumers and the US regulators of the last 20 years, have been spending like crazy without the assets to cover the debts. The Chinese announced they are ‘diversifying’ their foreign cash reserves, which is just a fancy way of saying that they’ve decided to dump dollars and buy Euros since the dollar has lost too much value in the last 2 years.

    The US dollar is in a very real risk of collapsing. If you don’t understand what a currency collapse looks like, see Southeast Asia Currency Crisis, 1997 and Argentina 2000.

    We’ve overborrowed since Reagan term 1. We’re going to pay for it now. And no single hot US company is going to be able to escape the carnage.

  10. @voiceofreason, “Perhaps all children would be above average if he hadn’t been president. Perhaps I’d be taller and more muscular if he hadn’t been president. Perhaps winter days would be longer and the wind wouldn’t blow so much if he hadn’t been president…”

    Uhh… dude. No one’s saying that but you. Now just set down the crack pipe — theeere you go, that’s good; — now take a deep breath. Goood. Okay, stick with me. Now relax and listen to my voice… It’s aaall gonna be okay. Say it with me. It’s aaall going to be okay.

  11. @Towertone RE: “What are you trying to hide?”

    Wtf does that mean? My point was its funny to see the knee jerkers who throw out the word liberal at anyone who criticizes Bush at all, when the reality is, people on all sides don’t particularly care for his politics. Ask any true conservative for an off the record evaluation of his admin and you might realize that’s true.

    What’s also funny is I don’t think most people even know what a liberal is, or can differentiate between a political liberal and what it means to have liberal ideas.

    So, not trying to hide anything mr fancy pants, just making a point.

  12. Classic MDN today:

    @Macromancer, “Ask any true conservative for an off the record evaluation of his admin… So, not trying to hide anything mr fancy pants…”

    So all that off-the record stuff… What’s that about. Sounds a bit like you don’t want to say something aloud for all to hear. Almost like you’re…

    wait for it…

    trying to hide something! Goodness; are you hiding awareness of your hiding even from yourself? I N T R O S P E C T I O N …try some.

    MW–inside

  13. Not that anybody will pay any attention, but the liberal-conservative sides don’t really matter in any ideological sense. These are macroeconomic forces at play. What has caused the system to get into this state, however, has been a result of both sides playing politics when it came to fiscal and currency policy. (I would argue that the Republicans have been the more stupid and cynical abusers of the system (Thanks Milton Friendman, you putz), but that’s just a matter of degree, not kind.)

    “Deficits don’t matter” has been the childish attitude of the Republicans while in power. While out of power, they pounded the Dems for fiscal responsibility, who have a horrible tendency to try to overspend to please everybody. It is true that Clinton did ride a wonderful economy in the 90s to fiscal surplus, which W then managed to piddle away. But we shouldn’t forget all the Dems in the population charging up their credit cards and buying houses they couldn’t afford, just like their Republican neighbors.

    The only thing we have going for us is that the US is STILL the market of last resort for most countries around the world . . . so they may end up stepping in and helping us out when our currency collapses. They might.

  14. Macro
    Even the staunchest Conservatives who disagree with many of Bush’s actions would not make a statement like G-Spank’s.

    It’s that simple. They may not like his economics or war plan, but they have more sense than to blame him for everything from global warming to bulimic models.

  15. @doc, What’s up?

    Congratulations. You’ll survive better than most of us. But it won’t save you from the fact that you won’t be able to get a mortgage or car loan, and your imported goods will soon cost 5x, then 10x, then 20x, (then who knows?) more. Imported goods like oil, and winter produce, and cars, and toys, and clothes, and everything at Walmart, and computers, and iPods.

    I have this discussion with economic professors several times in the last 3 years. It doesn’t matter whether they are Keynesian or Friedmanites. They all seem to recognize that the US economy is about to go into some serious troubles. (The Friedmanites just don’t seem to care. They figure that the rich will be ok, and those are the only people who really matter, anyway.)

  16. of course Bush had an effect on the economy, he is responsible for the increase in gas prices.

    and gas prices affect everything.
    —

    looking really bad for AAPL today 🙁

    but, people are already waiting in line in england to buy the iPhone, and apple’s first (aka fourth) quarter is going to be great, record iPod sales etc..

  17. Tergenev has I think the most salient point here. The Chinese have a lot of short-term incentives to slow down on the accumulation of US Dollars. I don’t think they can afford to “dump” their dollars, however, because just as you say, it would cause a currency collapse.

    1) If the currency collapses, the Chinese can’t liquidate their billions fast enough to escape the collapse, and they lose their investment.

    2) If our currency collapses, the world economy will definitely take a hit – most likely a worldwide recession as people try to figure out what to do. It’s unprecedented that the largest economy in the world suffer a currency collapse, so one can only guess as to the repurcussions, but suffice to say it would be huge.

    3) Even barring worldwide implications, the faster the Dollar sinks compared to the Chinese Yuan, the more trouble it causes for China. Who is their #1 Export Destination? The US. If Chinese good suddenly skyrocket in price in America, guess what happens? We stop importing them, and start manufacturing locally again. China’s economy would suffer greatly.

    So there is every incentive in the world (literally) for the Chinese to be VERY careful about keeping the Dollar in a relatively stable place.

    I firmly believe the Chinese strategy has been to buy dollars, continue to gain leverage over the American economy, and gradually (ever so gently) keep lowering the value of American dollars, while gradually diversifying their export markets and building their own economy. To take a generation or two to gain quiet dominance in the world economy, that’s an achievable goal to them, I think.

    But to help spur a collapse? No one comes out ahead there, least of all the Chinese.

    Of course all this assumes rationality and some sort of central thought process, which may not be correct.

  18. Hey, somebody else agrees with me. To quote the Financial Post, from 5 hours ago:

    “…comments from a Chinese central-bank director who said the dollar is losing its status as a world currency and that China would “readjust accordingly” the location of its US$1-trillion — and climbing — currency reserves. But dramatically devaluing the U.S. dollar would hardly be in China’s best interests, as the Chinese know better than anyone else.

    A massive collapse of the dollar would instantly mark down the total value of China’s currency reserves, which are still massively invested in U.S. treasury bills and dollar instruments. A crashing U.S. dollar would also slow Chinese exports to the United States, threatening China’s economic health and growth prospects.
    So the Chinese have every reason to keep the dollar strong, and no reason to wage any kind of a currency war. Globally, moreover, increasing dollar weakness threatens global currency and economic stability.”

    Sounds like what I said. Good discussion, Tergenev. Anybody who thinks the current economic state is due to “Reagan” “Bush” “Clinton” or even “Carter” really doesn’t understand the larger forces at play. Not to say that George W. has done our economy any favors, because his fiscal policies have not been any help. But it ignores the bigger picture to blame politics. It’s beyond politics, because neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have the stomach to change anything important in the system for the greater good. They only will perform minor tweaks to the advantage of their political side. Both parties are guilty as Nero fiddling away while Rome is burning.

  19. @blucaso,
    Those are excellent points. It is true that the Chinese cannot afford to dump dollars too fast for fear of destroying the very market for product they count on. The question now is whether they will be able to control the price. The other big factor in this equation is oil, currently valued in dollars. If the world oil markets switch over to valuing oil in euros (there is a great deal of pressure for them to do so) . . . that will be the other shoe dropping, and even the Chinese with all of their surplus capital will probably not be able to stop the drop of the dollar.

    We shall see.

    On one bright note . . .several US solar panel producers are going up today. US technology in creating panels using less silicon per panel is proving very competitive in world markets. (A case where the drop in the dollar also helps US companies.)

    To get back to Apple . . . they’re cash rich ( I hope they’ve got a good currency arbitrage team and hedge plan) and an American producer. This may be an opportunity for them to increase market share outside of the US in a pretty dramatic fashion as the cost of US goods drops.

  20. @ Towertone

    And if you read my first post you’d see that I also said it was stupid to blame him for everything. It’s funny, he is the lightning rod, but less to blame than many other factors. I just can’t give the guy credit for mucking anything up on ihs own, but the people around him are moreso to blame.

  21. Up here in the Great White North…we are looking down on your American peso.

    At this rate we’ll be able to buy and sell you ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

    (and to think 5 years ago our dollar was at ¢65 U.S.)

  22. @Gspank – LOL you are a tool.
    Unemployment lower than when Clinton was in office.
    Stock market highest ever during Bush years.

    As far as the economy of the U.S. – well it has to do with credit and too many people being greedy thinking they could buy a house and sell it and make a bigggggg profit even if their mortgage payment went through the roof. They lose, the banks lose.
    Instead of blaming Bush for everything where was the oversight of the Democratic congress????

    And the other problem is China. They are cheating the free market system. Their currency does not float like the other currencies of the world.
    Did you know that in China they pay about 9 cents a gallon for gas….but the Chinese govt. is paying $100 a barrel just like the rest of us. The entire Chinese economy is a stack of cards waiting to implode.

    Apple stock – maybe a bit too high and getting ahead of itself.

  23. WELL WELL WELL!!!

    To those who doubted my prediction of a US post real estate bubble recession can now (as Eric Cartman would say) “suck my balls”.

    Prepare for a rapid decline in Apple stock before the holidays because people quite frankly will be worried about paying huge gas, fuel and housing bills before buying new Apple toys.. I’ve WARNED YOU!!!

    There is a hell of a lot more adjustment in the median price for houses about to occur. To the point that even people would good credit (aka not sub-prime) will purposly go bankrupt in order to prevent having to pay tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars more for their houses then they ever can possibly sell them for in the future.

    Layoffs will be the norm for a few years. Expect it.

    GET INTO CASH, spread it around under $100,000 at GOOD Banks. (not Bank of America or CitiBank). Reduce your monthly bills because you might be out of work for awhile until everything recovers. Expect your home not to appreciate for 7-8 years.

    As good old Donald Trump says: “Prepare for the worse and the good will take care of itself.”

  24. Some of you people just don’t get it.

    Don’t you think this collapse of the US dollar is being planned on purpose? How else do you expect King George, the Idiot King, to usher in the already planned economic and political union, called the North American Union, with the Amero as the new currency unit?

    Think about it…

  25. Oh, and if the US elects a democrat for president, expect HUGE TAXES due to their socialist agenda. This will further add to a recession.

    Hillory Clinton is already proposing giving $5,000 to every young child to start a college education fund.

  26. @Macintosh Sauce: I thought about it for about half a milli-second and realized you must be smoking something that is effecting your thinking.

    In less than a year a new President will be elected and put into office later in January. G. Bush will no longer be President; what will be the excuses then?
    Pray another Republican gets elected so you can put the fault on him and not the real source of the problems.

  27. @ Theo Ree

    Sorry to disappoint you but I don’t take any illegal drugs. Never have, never will. Also, it would be “affecting” not “effecting.”

    Do some research and you will pull up some really scary shit on this planned economic and political union that was signed in 2005 (if I remember correctly). They are already starting construction on the Trans-Texas Corridor, a NAFTA superhighway that is part of this new union.

  28. Macintosh Sauce – LOL.
    Not only is the happy sauce effecting your brain it is obviously affecting your thinking.
    And you realize that aliens are controlling Dick Chaney and 911 was an inside job and the switch to the Euro was to intermediate step for a new Dollar-Euro currency called the “Dolro” when the US and Europe combine to become one superstate to fend off the new Islamic empire….
    LOL.
    And still the U.S. refuses to embrace the metric system…

  29. if you buy the stock… buy “put” options as well… protect your gains.

    the stock will rise again…but those doing options… took a beating today… the Tech leaders sank… AAPL was the last to fall, but it fell just as hard as everyone else…

  30. Bush blamers are communists.

    Buy and hold — presidents come and go.

    So you think a liberal president won’t raise taxes, reducing the effective value of your stocks?

    All hail Al Gore, global warming, USA bashing and useful idiots!

  31. @Macromancer

    Made no sense? You aligned yourself with those who, off the record, would show their lack of allegiance for the President. But then you claimed that you’ve got nothing to hide… which leads sensically to the question: Why would you need to say those things off the record, which, by definition, is…

    oh, forget it.

    @blu… and others: Thanks for sharing the economic insights. I mean that genuinely. You obviously know your stuff. Only problem is, you’ve got me scared.

  32. Fact:
    George Bush will leave office the following:

    1. The worst unemployment record in history. (Keep in mind, Dept. of Labor only reports new unemployment insurance claims to calculate the numbers. When a person runs out of unemployment insurance, they are NOT counted in the remaining numbers.

    2. Worst stock market performance in histoy. (Yes, you Republican fools, when Clinton left the Dow was at 12,000. Almost 8 years later, we are barely above 13,000.)

    3. Worst environmental record

    4. Worst violence record.

    5. Worst home market since the Depression.

    6. Worst performance of the dollar, ever.

    7. Most deficits ever, in real terms and in inflation-adjusted terms.

    8. Worst war performance ever. (Iraq has lasted longer than World War 2. What have we gained so far, other than make Iran and al-Qaeda more powerful? Nothing. Clinton presided over the wars in Eastern Europe that stopped genocide, and we had not one U.S. death. NOT ONE.

    There are quotes of Sean Hannity, claiming the war in Bosnia was a fraud, to help Clinton’s image, and that “the President has no plan.” “He’s going to get our boys killed.” Guess what, sucker, we won the war! And not a single US soldier died!!

    9. Wages going down. Meanwhile, payroll taxes have gone up. And the dollar is down over 10%. Guess what, Republicans, your precious tax cut has helped no one! All Americans, due to the dollar’s fall, have gotten a 10% paycut!!

    10. Oil at an all-time high.

    11. Foreign policy blunders like claiming we love democracy in Iraq – yet, we support nothing but dictators and strongmen in the Middle East — in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, UAE, Yemen, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt.

    12. Nuclear foreign policy disasters – we try to stop Iran from getting nukes, yet we appease North Korea after allowing them to build bombs! Clinton stopped them, but Bush dropped the ball!
    Then, we make a nuclear deal with India! And of course, this makes Pakistan mad, is harboring terrorists AND have nukes, but we support them! Meanwhile, we want to bomb Iran despite the fact that they have NO BOMB! LOL

    13. LOL Eight years later, we have given up on even find Osama. What a joke.

    14. Took us to war based on lies. (Despite the Plame thing, the documents re: Iraq WERE PROVEN TO BE FORGERIES. AND WE HAVE NEVER INVESTIGATED WHO FORGED THEM.

    15. Katrina. While Harry Connick and Sean Penn were saving lives, our government claimed they couldn’t get in the city that first five days. LOL Even John Travolta loaded up his personal 747 and flew down there with supplies.

    16. Broken military. FACT: The Pentagon is looking into letting new recruits into the military who have FELONY CRIMINAL RECORDS, INCLUDING DRUG ABUSE CONVICTIONS.

    17. Broken National Guard.

    19. No energy policy. China is already beating us with hybrid cars and alternative energy research. They know they can’t pollute themselves forever.

    20. For the first time since the Industrial Age, the number one company is not American. Thanks, George. PetroChina is now the world’s first trillion dollar company.

    21. Job creation is the worst ever. Clinton created the highest-ever number of jobs and was the first in decades to reduce the federal debt.

    22. College attendance and retention rate is lower than under Clinton.

    23. Bush and Cheney committed treason by outing a CIA spy. Whether you believe she was covert or not – if a low level FBI agent leaked her name and agent status to say, Iran, and let them know Plame was investigating Iran/Iraq nuclear efforts via a front company named Brewster Jennings they would BE TRIED FOR TREASON AND ESPIONAGE.

    Can you imagine the outrage, if Hillary and Al Gore leaked the name of a CIA agent during the Bosnian war? And that they leaked the name of this CIA agent to a liberal writer at the NY Times, because the agent dared to say Clinton lied about the war in Bosnia?!!

    Imagine that Hillary was caught saying “she’s fair game” about the agent?

    Then, what if Congress and the liberal media was caught parsing words by saying, “well, the CIA agent wasn’t covert at the time so it doesn’t matter!”

    And imagine if say, Sandy Berger was the guy who helped leak this stuff and he was convicted but Bill Clinton pardons him right before he goes to jail?!!!

    Can you imagine the vein-busting outrage by the Republicans? Certainly, there would be an attempt on his life… And he would most certainly be impeached and they would have tried Clinton for treason AND hung the death penalty out there as a possibility.

    because he lied us into that war in the first place!? And that agent was a Republican

  33. Hey Bobb!

    Why don’t you quit blaming Bush for everything and took a look at your own shortcomings! Your naiveté is a sorry reminder of how liberals are ruining the world with hate, distortion, laziness, and lack of humility. Bush is NOT responsible for all your woes; you are! Why don’t you try to find an easy answer to the worst terrorist attack in the history of the world you self-righteous idiot! There are no easy answers. Take a chill pill why don’t ya!

  34. And so, in my State of the — my State of the Union — or state — my speech to the nation, whatever you want to call it, speech to the nation — I asked Americans to give 4,000 years — 4,000 hours over the next — the rest of your life — of service to America.
    –George w. Bush

    Bridgeport, CN
    04/09/2002

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