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Thu, Mar 18, 2010 - 05:03 AM EDT  —  AAPL: 224.12 (-0.33, -0.15%)  |  NASDAQ: 2389.09 (+11.08, +0.47%)

The Motley Fool: Palm’s Pre appears doomed, dead on arrival
Tuesday, April 14, 2009 - 05:42 PM EDT

"Palm's Pre smartphone, feature-rich though it may be, appears doomed," Tim Beyers writes for The Motley Fool.

"A recent survey of 4,292 adult smartphone buyers by ChangeWave Research found that only 4% of respondents planned to buy the Pre in the next six months. By contrast, 37% planned to buy Research In Motion's BlackBerry, and 30% planned to buy Apple's iPhone," Beyers writes.

"'No way. I love my iPhone and the way it's integrated with my [MacBook] Pro makes it easier,' reader John Cummings wrote in response to my Twitter poll asking iPhoners if they'd switch to a Pre," Beyers writes. "Where are you now, Roger McNamee?"

Beyers writes, "Today's Pre isn't as buzzworthy as yesterday's iPhone. Few users are willing to switch."

Beyers reports, "ChangeWave reports that only 1% of respondents to its surveys would switch to Sprint Nextel, Palm's exclusive carrier for the Pre... Therein lies the difference. The iPhone was bigger than AT&T; the Pre is apparently smaller than Sprint."

"Even more troubling is the math," Beyers writes. "If 37% of surveyed smartphone buyers want a BlackBerry and 30% want an iPhone, Palm gets to slug it out with Nokia, the global smartphone market leader, and Google's Android partners for the remaining third."

Full article here.

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Apr 14, 09 - 05:45 pm Comment from: Mac Daddy

DOA? Cripes, the stupid phone doesn't even exist! Just like Windows 7, it's vaporware.

Apr 14, 09 - 05:53 pm Comment from: Michael H

Mac Daddy: EXACTLY. Sprint -- "the NOW network" has been running commercials and putting the Pre at the end of them. Is the Pre the now phone? Can I buy it now? Hell no. The Pre will be an abysmal failure because the desktop experience matters. MobileMe push matters on the iPhone. Does the Pre have any of this? Hell no.

Just say no to CDMAids.

Apr 14, 09 - 05:56 pm Comment from: Anonymous©

Wow, he didn't even mention WinMo, alongside, Nokia's Symbian and Android as competition for the Palm WebOS.

Personally, I think he's making too much of the 4% in the survey, seeing as they have only CES to go on.

Apr 14, 09 - 06:09 pm Comment from: bizlaw

People don't even know what the Pre can do at this point, so the survey is useless. The only thing it is good for is to tell us that most Blackberry users and almost all iPhone users would not switch.

This doesn't mention Microsoft users, who are most likely to jump ship to anything they can get to.

Apr 14, 09 - 06:12 pm Comment from: glamajamma

Too bad their analysis has been consistently off. My investments have risen at least 50% by no following their "dont' buy" advice.
They are hacks.

Apr 14, 09 - 06:13 pm Comment from: jocknerd

What a stupid survey.

Apr 14, 09 - 06:16 pm Comment from: Virus Free

This is a tough retail market, Apple and RIM have it locked up.

Apple for the consumer market and RIM for the corporate/business market that demands using the Crackberry because it's so ingrained.

There are cracks in the Crackberry monopoly, they are having a bit of trouble once Apple got into the market.

Apr 14, 09 - 06:58 pm Comment from: twilightmoon

Mac Daddy: "Just like Windows 7, it's vaporware."

Windows 7 is not Vaporware. Windows 7 is warmed over Vista. Vista is not vaporware.

Apparently Vista is just a little colder than MS thought so it's taking a bit longer to finish warming it up. It's coming soon, don't worry, mate!

Apr 14, 09 - 07:15 pm Comment from: rwr

Personally, I think the Pre will do pretty well, shaving off market share from other physical keyboard smart phones like Windows Mobile and Blackberry.

Big Caveat: If it works as advertised. It's much nicer than both Windows Mobile and RIM.

Apr 14, 09 - 08:05 pm Comment from: Jubei

Why 37% BB? Is it because of the corporate IT ( Policy ), BES lock in mode that warrants that number?

Apr 14, 09 - 08:16 pm Comment from: Anonymous©

Pre is not DOA, but it'll be a modest success if it exceeds the G1's sales.

The fact is, the Pre is being launched by a desperate company. People smell fear, and so they aren't buying from GM, they aren't buying from Chrysler, they aren't buying from Motorola. The early adopters will buy, just like the early adopters bought T-Mo's G1, but the G1 has lost significant momentum.

Also, the Pre doesn't have a strong carrier. It remains to be seen whether Sprint can subsidize the Pre enough to get it down to $199 at launch. If it can't, that will really hurt.

Palm doesn't have a good track record recently of getting product to market on time.

The fact is, Palm has lots of big hurdles, that make it difficult for even a great device to succeed.

CES was scripted to show off the very best attributes of the Pre. There were tons of questions left unanswered at CES. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's hope they launch before the end of June, as they'll lose mindshare and momentum if they don't.

Apr 14, 09 - 08:23 pm Comment from: Randian

Mac Daddy said it best:

It's V-A-P-O-R-W-A-R-E! It's a promise, a dream, a wish-list of the first order.

Multi-tasking, background processing? Yeah, sure. Just wait until its battery fails after 30 minutes of intensive use.

This thing is a joke, pure and simple, A last gasp. A dying breath.

Apr 14, 09 - 08:58 pm Comment from: Mister Snitch

Not enough 'o's in 'doom' for this debacle.

Apr 14, 09 - 10:26 pm Comment from: Scott in Japan

Have any real, pre-production Pre's ever been seen? If I remember correctly.... Apple did have some pre-production iPhones available for show-n-tell when it was announced.......

Apr 15, 09 - 01:02 am Comment from: Mac Daddy

@twilightmoon

"...Vista is not vaporware.

...It's coming soon, don't worry, mate!"

I'm waiting breathlessly wink

Apr 15, 09 - 02:28 am Comment from: Maddog

@Scott in Japan

Obviously you don't read Engadget much.

And personally the Pre is the only other smart phone that I'm even going to consider when I ditch my iPhone 1.0 in June. And it's cards feature, multiple apps running, non-intrusive notifiers, and extended touch surface...I gotta say the new iPhone better come out in June or there's a high chance my next phone's a Pre.

Apr 15, 09 - 08:41 am Comment from: iStepchild

@Maddog
Have fun with your little web apps...and loose moving parts...and battery drain...and your using any sync alternative to iTunes.
But, you will have your tacile feedback prehistoric buttons.

Apr 15, 09 - 10:11 am Comment from: NO CLUE

MDN loves to peddle this BS. The Pre will do just fine - though it won't touch iPhone or BB. Think about it folks. Try something different here: use ration.

If there are roughly 130 mln smartphone units sold each year, and they are battling for only a 1/3 or about 42 million, they only need 20% of that last third to sell 8.4 million phones (also remember nokia has no presence at sprint). At $350 each (I have no idea what the actual ASP will be) that equals about $3B revenue for Palm - and they would be profitable by $100-200mln.

I'm not saying Pre kills it, but that doesn't mean it's DOA. There is a huge gap between the two that MDN can't decipher. Pretty lame if you ask me. just peddling the normal BS about anything and everything non-apple.

Apr 15, 09 - 10:13 am Comment from: MacTony

I hear that the Pre will fold your clothes while you have a three-way conversation, surfing the web and listening to Pandora and self-charge from the environment. Let's see it do everything that Palm claims and have over 4 hours of battery life.

Apr 15, 09 - 10:46 am Comment from: Synthmeister

@NO CLUE

"use ration.?!" I ration my cat food. Not a clue what you're saying.

Anyways, I honestly hope the Pre does well. I'd much rather have it than the crap OS on my current LG phone.

But given that both Sprint and Palm are hemorrhaging money while Apple, Google and MS have billions in the bank, the future really doesn't look so hot. Also, the impending arrival of OS 3.0 and probable new hardware from Apple is very bad timing for Pre. They are simply about a year too late to the party. Should have been figuring this out instead of wasting money and precious time on BeOS and the Folio.

Apr 15, 09 - 12:12 pm Comment from: ShutterUpper

Understand this: the iPhone integration is with iTunes, which is almost exactly the same on both Mac and PC (I have both, but prefer mac). There were never, I mean never, any sync problems with either a PC and Mac. Additionally, if you ask someone who bought an iPhone, they are unlikely to switch (usually you love your device). Similar to the Blackberry. If you are in the market for a new device, then this survey might be more accurate. I have a Treo 755p for my law office, an iPhone as my private line. I have since moved my entire calendar to the iPhone and sync the data over to the Treo, making the iPhone my primary device. I am seriously considering the pre to take over my Sprint Treo 755p's position. The survey should talk to all the people holding on to their 700p's and 755p's at Sprint, and Verizon, to see who would switch. That is more accurate.

Apr 15, 09 - 05:47 pm Comment from: @synthmeister

i think they meant use reason. use ration or rationale thought. not something that generally occurs here.

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