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Feb 19, 08 - 06:27 pm Comment from: Macromancer

Is this Chris Farley writing this article?

faith or fear - take your pick.

Relax folks. This is technical analysis. His analysis is quite sound from a technical point of view. But understand that technical analysis doesn't take into account anything but stats - directions, numbers, time on the market. Apple has historically proved technical analysts wrong.

There is no science to stock charts; predicting future performance by looking for patterns in a stock's chart is as accurate as reading tea leaves.

Feb 19, 08 - 06:49 pm Comment from: Angelus520

My girlfriend just bought a new iMac two weeks ago on top of a shiny new 160GB iPod Classic last month. Plus, I'm planning on getting at least a couple new shuffles and maybe even splurging finally for a 16GB iPhone. Yeah, I think Apple's best days are in the past

Feb 19, 08 - 06:53 pm Comment from: Ferf Muckmeyer

This guy is full of shit. As far as technical analysis goes this asswipe does a pretty piss-poor job of this and has no insight as to what Apple is all about. There may be a downturn, but everyone is headed for a downturn. But that's the economic climate we are in now. Remember, that drop in price happened during a week when everyone cried "recession" AND Apple's guidance was lower for next quarter. Everyone freaked over this, thus the huge point drop.

But to bail now would be foolish, and now may be the best time to invest. Farley should get another job.

What do you mean AppleTV Take 2 coming - It has been here over a week... and by the way it is really sweet..

Numbers. Knowledge. Power.

A handful of numbers tells nothing. Like looking out your window, testing the wind, then saying, "The numbers tell me the earth is flat."

Gathering a bunch of numbers, you look out your window, look at NASA satellite photos and data, find other earth and geometry information and say, "The earth is round, spinning at a tremendous rate, and rotates the sun in a parabolic orbit."

This guy is doing the best he can with ONLY the numbers he knows. A bad start and a worse finish...

Feb 19, 08 - 07:00 pm Comment from: R

The Street has always been down on Apple to some degree-- and I'm not saying this to argue whether he's right or wrong. It's just that they have a vested interest in pimping web hits. And here in lies a major problem with "news" sites that ultimately feed of swings in news-- they want things to be unstable. That's certainly something to remember when listening to any news organization. Propaganda isn't just what they tell you is happening, it's what they leave out of the story. Farley's choice to highlight certain aspects of his analysis leave out others that may (strongly) contradict his position.

But that wouldn't lead to many clicks, now would it?

Why anyone would take the advice of a technical analyst is beyond me. I have read more loopy BS from chartists than I can recall. The great minds analyzing Wall Street have all looked at one thing: fundamentals. It's EARNINGS and CASH FLOW that allow for a clear understanding of a publicly traded company's performance, not a bunch of squiggly lines and reading of tea leaves. I will continue to depend on the wise thoughts of Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch to assess Apple and other publicly traded companies, not some whack-job from Cramer's outfit.

So long as Apple continues to post solid earnings, and the company's quarterly reports beat the often insane estimates for the company, I won't care a whit about what idiots posing as pundits have to say. Peter Lynch was prescient when he said that a company's stock price eventually and invariably tracks its earnings. The two are always correlated. While the timing of a stock's price often is ahead of what earnings will do, eventually, they link.

Personally, I think the decline in Apple's stock price has more to do with Wall Street both trying to short the stock and take profits as large institutional investors drove the stock's price down (in a bald-faced attempt to cover for the losses they incurred by causing the real-estate meltdown by absurd, non-existant risk management of mortgage-backed securities) than anything Apple has done. Much of the fear over Apple's earnings is based on speculation and not fact. While big money can build a stock's price up or down, eventually, what propels a stock is the company's underlying performance as represented by earnings.

No idiot looking for teacup patterns on a stock chart will ever comprehend that. And that is why I choose to ignore their alleged counsel. You should too. Otherwise, you are better off joining the flotsam that are day traders.

He wants you to sell so the big boys can buy it up cheap and then let the stock blast to 600. What a butt munch.

Steve checks his sales charts everyday to find trends and patterns.

thestreet.com belongs to jim cramer who loved aapl at 200 but now hates at below 130. All this is to help fulfill cramer's protect that aapl is going lower. World class journalism I tell you:)

How long will it take for people to understand that so-called technical analysis" has not one shred of veracity based on unbiased, methodologically sound research. Don't believe it? Do a little research - it's total BS. Technical Analysis of the ups and downs of the stock market belongs in the same dustbin with astrology, alchemy, phrenology, Piltdown Man and thousands of other idiotic ideas disseminated by the ignominious history of legions of charlatans.

We need to continually identify these people as the charlatins

Looks like everyone here is reading something I don't see. Having bought 1000 shares at 170 I don't see such a rosy picture. Sales, profits, products all great and yet the stock has dropped like an anchor. What will it take to turn it around? I hope all you folks are right but I still project a bottom at about 100.

Feb 19, 08 - 07:35 pm Comment from: Dasgeek

TheStreet.com is one of Jim Cramer's babies. Jim Cramer has publicly bragged about manipulating stock prices for hedge funds.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP-A/idUSN2036292620070321

TheStreet was behind the rumor last August about the decrease in iPhone orders. It was a lie.

http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/14442/

F*ck TheStreet. TheStreet is a dirty place and I have no interest in their manipulations. They are trying to beat the last bit of short interest out of AAPL.

Further to Buffet Head: Then too, maybe some investors have lost their shirts on prime crap mortgages, in which case they have run out of cash, can't borrow at low interest due to credit crunch, etc, and have to sell things that help them compensate for their losses...liquidation for the nation as it were, causing even good stocks to drop, particularly the big winners. Like AAPL.
So the credit crunch can affect even stocks that have good omens for the future, simply because the holders need their cash to make up for losses elsewhere. Only the market knows how bad it is, and that's wherever the demand supply curve lands. How long will it last? How big will it be? AAPL holders need to be able to ride out the storm, even though the financial numbers are truly spectacular. The good are in the same canoe as the bad during credit storms. Fortunately Apple's stuff is so good it wlll continue to outpace its competitors even in a recession which is good news for us AAPL holders.

Well Doh!

Of course AAPL (the stock)'s best days are behind it. It is NOT going to go up 20+ fold (under 10 to 200) ever again.

Apple is never going to be worth 2 Trillion dollars.

More likely, it will take 1 to 3 years to double in value or so. Making it merely a very attractive investment.

Apple--the company, not the stock--has its best years coming up.

I think MDN is a litle too defensive here--don't confuse the company with the stock.

Feb 19, 08 - 07:45 pm Comment from: iDon't

Hoot,
Then sell now and buy back at 100. I sold 1000 shares at 190, then like a dummy bought 1000 at 145.

Actually his technical analysis isn't even all that. Technically you have an almost perfect fibonacci retracement from the beginning of 2007. If you don't like that you can go back to the July 06 bottom or the Feb 05 bump or back to the post dotcom flats. They match up pretty well. More recently Apple had retracements in July and October. All match up.

Parabolas are driven by sentiment. Has sentiment changed? Yes. Stock price is ultimately driven by what a company produces and their business model. Has this changed? No. In fact it keeps getting better. So the only technical conclusion possible is that Apple is a stock driven by sentiment and therefore subject to retracement. Full stop.

Saying "Apples best days are behind" adds drama but no value. If Farley actually believed it, I don't think he would be suggesting we buy LEAPS which, by the way, are overpriced right now unless you believe exactly the opposite of what he says).

Going forward, a fibonacci retracement off the low in 2006 and the high last year, suggests Apple will bottom at 110 OR that it has already found bottom at around 125. The bounce back has three possible levels depending on overall market sentiment: 150, 160 and 170. If the stock rallies a little but does not make 150 then it will probably go to 110, if only because hedge funds watch the same graphs.

Of course, which levels we reach on the bottom and the rebound depends on consumer sentiment AND on what Apple announces at the end of this month and their report for the quarter.

Charting is important because many people trade off charts, right or wrong. It is important to know where they will buy and sell. Don't get so emotional, it's a stock.

Apple is never going to be worth 2 Trillion dollars.

Check back in 10 years and see if that statement holds.

Technical analysis is not a science, just like astrology. That doesnt mean that sometimes technicians may be right, just like when some astrologer infers that I am very smart, because I am a Gemini

Let's just hope Apple can tidy up Leopard. As a sysadmin, I am dealing with the same hair-pulling problems that were in early Tiger. So far, Leopard has been the biggest problem in my job over the past 3 months, and I know what the hell I am doing. It's tough when 3 years ago, I walked into a 100% windows environment, and have since changed that to 85% OS X, but Apple needs throw us IT guys a bone. With the demise of XRAID and PoE Airports, and other indicators, I would be willing to bet that Apple is pulling the plug on any corporate endeavors. It's obvious that they are headed for a strictly consumer-based market, which is sad since my IT evangelism towards Apple could be nearing an end. Apple, just don't give up on education sales, and please support your education IT guys. We need you as much as you need us....

"Sell Apple, Buy Microsoft"

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10360750.html

Same guy back in June!

Basically the whole market is down. And that's News?

Google was up to 700 and now it's down to 500. ( I supposed he thinks Google is a done deal too)

Apple has some of the best products on the market. I don't expect them to produce an iPhone with every new product release - it would be nice but let's be realistic. Apple will produce as they invent. I'm not worried about it.

My Mac is better than ANY Windows PC and I'll continue to buy Macs and iPods. The day Apple starts producing mediocre stuff and someone else can out do them - that's the day I'll consider them over.

Feb 19, 08 - 08:31 pm Comment from: oh no my shorts

Say what you will, but I half-seriously think that Apple's current position is due to "punishment" by the institutional investors for Jobs and Apple's placement of Randy Newman and his unfortunate choice of material (second-rate America?) at the last MacWorld Expo.

Does that strike a note with anyone else?

You won't find any technical investment theories winning Nobel Prizes, unlike fundamental investment theories, which do.

"Oh, wait, there are no companies like Apple."

Because Apple is a magical company which sells hopes and dreams rather than tangible products, and Wall Street only knows how to analyze companies based on how much money they are likely to make now and in the future. How unreasonable is that? To analyze a company based on the money it's likely to make for investors. That's just ridiculous. Don't they know how much we all love our Macs. That is much more important than making money.

Feb 19, 08 - 09:25 pm Comment from: Spark

@oh no my shorts
I don't know if Randy Newman had any impact on the the stock price, but I was annoyed by his patter. Why is that liberal entertainers feel a need to pontificate politically when they've been hired to play a few tunes. What I found so hypocritical was that between his railing at big corporations he didn't see any irony in his fawning over those who sign his paychecks: Pixar, Disney, Apple...

Guess what Randy, those guys are BIG CORPORATIONS too! Get off your high horse and 'shut up and sing'.

PS- I admire Randy's talent and music very much. And he, like all free citizens of the world are entitled to their opinion. Just don't take advantage of the microphone you are given to entertain to voice those opinions to those who came to hear you play and sing.

Feb 19, 08 - 09:28 pm Comment from: ken1w

Because of general market conditions currently, it is possible that AAPL will trade sideways for a while. However, Apple actually makes huge revenue and profits. And recurring wireless revenue from iPhone is continuing to build, as Apple releases iPhone into new markets. So think the price has stabilized between $120 and $130 on the downside. As a long-term investor with a relatively small position (worth 10 times more now than when I bought), I don't plan to sell. But I might buy some more.

One thing I noticed at Barnes and Noble a few days ago was that there is now at least an equal amount of shelf space devoted to Mac OS books as there are Windows books. Windows books used to have several times the shelf space as Mac.

What does that tell me? It says that lots of people are buying Mac books these days and that the Mac platform is really taking off.

That can only be a good sign for Apple stock.

Dong!!

Apple Store in Miami is insanely busy.

I call BULLSHEET on "TheStreet"

People are buying so fast that I had a hard time finding a free Apple person to buy a iPod.

The stock is down because instead of nearly everyone buying Apple toys, it's just the well off which is Apple's primary market to begin with.

Feb 19, 08 - 09:50 pm Comment from: 84 Mac Guy

To me, the stock market is no different from the gaming tables in Vegas. You simply cannot predict how stocks will move in the future.

With that premise, long term, Apple is certainly a great investment and that will prove itself in the LONG TERM. 3 months is not long term. Neither is 6 months or 1 year or 5 years.

If you want to make money on Apple stock, buy it and sit on it for years. And hope the hell nothing happens to Jobs.

Funny thing is that everyone is right. Stock's best days are behind it. However good the fundamentals are,the fact remains it us a consumer goods company and will get pinched. Not every one has 500 bux for apple goodies. They haven't missed a qtr in yrs... What happens when they do? So far the crowning achievement is the iPhone and I personally don't need another device at all.....as most of you know its that good. So theory would say that with every iphone they sell they lose the repeat iPod biz that everyone was so accustomed to drive the stock higher. Computer biz is good but not enough to offset that. For now. Eventually the stock will get cheap but recessions have a knack for driving down visibilty and therefore stock prices. 110 or lower... sorry

Feb 19, 08 - 10:41 pm Comment from: Ampar

Randy Newman writes a song . . . buy AAPL
Randy Newman takes a brief hiatus . . . sell AAPL

Got it. Does anyone here know the name of the thirteenth Zodiac sign?

As an AAPL investor, and longtime fanboy, I have to admit I was astonished by the runup in the company's stock price last year. I bought more, at around $190 for the worst possible reason -- that I not miss out in case it rose even higher. OK, I'm eating the short- to medium-range loss. The stock price (which, by the way, is not a reliable gauge of the company's health) was clearly a little out of whack. Even now it's trading high relative to earnings. But Apple's got momentum, and in the long run it will continue to grow several times faster than the sector. I hope the stock price does a better job tracking the company's growth in the future -- rather than being run up by speculators then dive bombing.

I bought 5 more shares today.

Yeah, Apple is dead. And you know it's true, because the press and tech pundits have never run a story like THAT before.

They are manipulating the stock with lies, for profit.

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/08/05/more-on-scott-moritz-and-the-jim-cramer-street-misinformation-engine/

You know you can look at numbers in many different ways.
I mean, optionists will look at an RSI <= 20 with a bottoming of the Bollinger bands and read this as a bullish sign. It happened when the stock hit 120 and effectually rallied to 130.

With this pattern, I would normally look at resistance points using fibonacci patterns. So, taking 120 as the bottom and 200 as the top, you get an 80 point spread. If you take 12.5, 25, 37.5% of the 80 and add them to 120 you get 130, 140, 150 as resistance points. You could also look at the 50, 200 day moving averages to see where the stock could pop and meet resistance.

As for the sideways pattern movement described above, I think that you must look at the seasonality of this stock. It is driven by products, but also by people such as Cramer and momentum traders who look at the above very closely. It is a volatile stock that can jump 1-5% in a day and 20-30% in a week. If you're long, I think holding and playing covered calls is a good way to go. If you're short, God help you if they offer an Earth shattering announcement. If you're looking for a time to get in, I would look at the Bollinger and RSI patterns. I follow those very closely for short term options trading.

Good luck.

Rick.

This guy flatly assumes Apple is an investment company.

Well, not really, they are in the business of making computers. They don't sell air, but stuff that people really can use. And they are good at it.

"Well, not really, they are in the business of making computers. They don't sell air, but stuff that people really can use. And they are good at it."

Never confuse a company being a great company with it's stock being a great investment. Apple had been driven up to high levels by unrealistic expectations. It was a great ride for a while but not based on the fundamentals of Apple's business. Now it is correcting to more realistic levels.

The stock market is driven by rumors and lies these days. No one should be believed about any stock's value. Companies that regularly turn profits seem to get the shaft because they aren't making 'bigger profits'. Geez, Apple's doing well as a company. Any company staying in business and making good product should have a buy rating. Actually, if they know what's best, buy back all the stock and go private again.

Feb 20, 08 - 09:09 am Comment from: Cubert

"Got it. Does anyone here know the name of the thirteenth Zodiac sign?"

It's called "Ballmer". Those born under that sign have a propensity to sweat, dance, lie through their teeth, and parade about with their tongue hanging out.

Probably the reason why they just stuck with 12 zodiac signs.

maybe if Apple decided to stop innovating and rest on its laurels this would be the case, but rivals are not catching up... they are falling further behind and Apple is accelerating.

Chuck you Farley.

Feb 20, 08 - 10:52 am Comment from: Ampar

Cubert:

Feb 20, 08 - 03:43 pm Comment from: Bluefin

AMPAR

Ophiuchus

Feb 20, 08 - 03:45 pm Comment from: Bluefin

But then.... I should know better than to be serious....