MacDailyNews - Where Mac news comes first

Jan 25, 08 - 01:38 am Comment from: Spark

I think so too.

so I wonder why Apple does this? they don't do ANYTHING without a strategy behind it. in other words, they knew there was a very good chance that by guiding low they would incur a mass selloff.

hmmm...

Jan 25, 08 - 02:49 am Comment from: DogGone

I say crap. If Apple guided too high then they would be massacred too. Better understate than miss guidance due to the economic climate.

A few things freaked the market:
1. Flat iPod numbers (the market ignored 2M iPhones sold and higher unit revenue).
2. Lower Mac sales (not 2.5M as rumored).
3. General concerns for luxury spending (market forgets the wealthy usually always have money)
4. Brokers FUD to drop the market for their own benefit.

Apple guided correctly IMHO. The media, brokers etc hype and bite to create movement.

Apple's revenue and profit are great. It will be interesting how many units they move in the next 6 months.

Jan 25, 08 - 02:51 am Comment from: Cubert

Macaday, seeing his shares go up!

The truth that I'm beginning to see is that Apple HAS TO CURB expectations.

If it didn't I believe expectations would rise even more astronomically, leading to far worse scenarios.

After all, the share price doesn't affect operations and its ability to deliver because it is cash rich, but the people who suffer are those long investors that have had no choice but to offload at this moment, even then limit the sympathy because of the growth over the last years.

Short term traders? Well, they are just gambling after all...

You're right Cubert! But I don't retire for another 15 years or so!

Wonder what they will be then..hazard a guess?? Depending on the longevity of MDN, we may be able to find the question and answer in 2023!

Go Curb $18,000,000,000.00

I love it when analysts say "the time to buy this stock was the day before yesterday when it briefly hit a low which is at least 10% less than the price today. So buy it at that price! Now! Go on!!"

Jan 25, 08 - 05:06 am Comment from: ElderNorm

Yeah, Market mania. Apple stock prepping for take off. More and more writers are pointing out that Apple is cash rich, and raking in the money on advancing sales.

PS. I fully expect iPod sales to STOP increasing!!! You heard it here first. Now, I do expect them to start a flat (based upon quarter) rate. This means that there is a replacement rate plus a slow to middle growth in new users. (remember that the iPod works for years and years and does not have to be trashed every year.)

3...
2......
1.....

Jan 25, 08 - 05:15 am Comment from: British Mac Head

Hey guys, I really want to buy a few (all I can afford) of these shares. Does anyone know if there is a minimum number you have to buy?

Jan 25, 08 - 05:22 am Comment from: HolyMackerel

I understand why AAPL went down, but why has AAPL kept going down while most others have jumped back up?

Are the iPod and iPhones plateauing in growth since there are only so many rich geeks out there?

Now would seem a good time to introduce 'mini' versions of the iPhone and iMac with more limited function (RAM, graphics, ports, etc), but a price tag that everyday users can grasp.

For example:
• a 2GB iPhone with no camera and pay-as-you-go SIM for $199
• a 1 Ghz, 512M, VGA-only Mac Mini for $399
• a 1.6 Ghz 15" iMac with integrated graphics for $899

There is a whole world out there who would love an Apple product, but cannot afford any of their models.

@British Mac Head. You can buy as many or as few as you want, but watch out for commission. AAPL is traded on NASDAQ not LSE, so you have to pay extra, but shouldn't be more than 17.50 for the trade. Try opening an account with http://www.fool.co.uk (actually Halifax). It will take a week or so to open, though. Then you trade online. Open in an ISA if possible.

If you have APPL, hold it and ride out the storm.

If you don't, don't buy any until it hits bottom.

Where is bottom? (Right between the buns.

When the US recession is looking like it about to end and the market/economy is about to grow again, which it will from the increase of population that unfortunately always occurs.

Perhaps the doom and the gloom is being overdone:

http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html

Time to take advantage of Apple’s Q2 guidance misdirection?

Purposeful misdirection if you ask me.

Steve Jobs is a old smoothy, he knows the US economy (his major market) is headed for a post real estate bubble recession.

His job is to make Apple stock appear as great as possible, lessen the effects of a recession on his stock value, why?

Because Steve Jobs only took $1 in salary every year since he's been back at Apple. He instead holds a lot of Apple stock, which some of it he has manipulated to get better earnings, was the subject of a SEC investigation.

Steve Jobs also refused for a long time to provide Apple Care in certain US states because it required disclosing certain details of Apple with these state agencies to correlate with their respective tax departments.

So we KNOW Steve Jobs will "fudge" things and this "misdirection" is one of them. The media is his lap dog and facilitator in this great scheme to prop his stock and take investors for their money.

My advice is to wait out the recession, then buy on a long term basis. Don't buy into the scam.

We all want Apple to succeed, but Steve is willing to fudge things a bit which hurts Apple to get ahead.

purposeful misdirection?

are there companies out there who actually overstate their guidance and survive when they consistently "under" achieve?

I would think everyone would understate....

and btw, I've wondering...this past quarter was the best quarter in Apple history. How does this upcoming March quarter rank in the history of Apple's "march quarters" if Apple meets its "gloomy" projections?

The stock is almost at $140 as of now, not $126. It'll be back up to $200 by the summer. This was nothing more than a hedge fund play to make money. They made this buying opportunity so they could get in cheap, and now it'll start taking off again here very soon.

SECUIRTY ISSUE IN OFFICEMAC 2008!!!

Not only is the POS Excel 2008 over 4x slower than Excel 2004, it's got security issues.

NEVER BUY MICROSOFT!! Have you learned yet? Use NeoOffice on the Mac and Open Office on the PC. Simple and free.

Read on you OfficeMac suckers...

http://www.xlr8yourmac.com/feedback/mac_Excel_2008_performance.html#storytop

http://www.macworld.co.uk/macsoftware/news/index.cfm?RSS&NewsID=20252

Jan 25, 08 - 09:37 am Comment from: Demon

The March Quarter is always Apple's slowest quarter. Peter Oppenheimer is well known for being an ultra-conservative in his financial forecasts. He's also know for his ultra-conservative accounting principles. He basically runs Apple's financial house with an iron fist now (being put fully in charge of Apple's Fiscal house after the option scandal) not Steve Jobs or really the Apple Board will try and tell him how to run the fiscal accounting of Apple. While Oppenheimer is ultra conservative in his financial guidance for each quarter, in the end he is good for Apple and good for Apple's investors, even if it doesn't look like it right a the moment.
Keep these words that Oppenheimer made in the Q1 call in mind, "We base our guidance on projections that we reasonable feel confident in achieving." from the press release Q1 2008 the guidance is word like this, "Looking ahead to the second quarter of fiscal 2008, we expect revenue of about $6.8 billion and earnings per diluted share of about $.94.". From Q1 of 2007,“Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2007, we expect revenue of $4.8 to $4.9 billion and earnings per diluted share of $.54 to $.56.”
So how conservative is Oppenheimer's predictions? Go look through the Apple Archives and do the math.
If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Apple earnings for Q2 at about $1.10 to $1.25 per diluted share.

Jan 25, 08 - 09:44 am Comment from: Demon

Maybe MDN could do a Apple's Q2 fiscal projection prediction page where registered users could make their predictions and at the end of Q2 when Apple announces their results MDN could declare a winner. Just for the sport of it.

Jan 25, 08 - 11:45 am Comment from: Mr. Peabody

@BritishMacHead, actually, if you're not a day trader or heavily into trading, or maybe not trading at all, and you just want to get your feet wet, I would suggest sharebuilder.com. Not only have their real-time trade fees been reduced to about $10 (after being acquired by img), but if you're willing to do all of your buying and selling on Tuesdays you get a flat rate of $4/trade. And look out for all of the knee jerk reactionary hoopla that you see here and in financial news, which generally has only an indicative impact on long term investments, and tends to be bent toward those that in fact do day-trade and have lot's of eggs in various baskets, and whom can be made or broken on a daily or weekly basis.

Good luck!

Apple assumed the analysts are smarter than they actually are.