“Apple has won the hearts and minds of the younger generation in recent years, with its ubiquitous iPod opening the door to market share gains for its less popular desktop computers. Rival Microsoft has responded with the Zune, an odd device trying to challenge the iPod’s near monopoly on teenage coolness,” Alan Farley writes for RealMoney.com.
MacDailyNews Note: According to RealMoney.com, Alan Farley is a professional trader and author of The Master Swing Trader. Farley also runs a Web site called HardRightEdge.com, an online resource for trading education, technical analysis and short-term investment strategies. He’s also the author of The Daily Swing Trade, a premium product that outlines his charts and analysis.
Farley continues, “Of course, the Zune will never threaten the iPod’s sales dominance, but you can’t fault Microsoft for trying. Indeed, the company has been in the knock-off business for generations, trying to mimic the best ideas of other companies rather than use originality or creativity to book its immense profits.”
“It’s no secret that Apple’s stock has wiped the floor with Microsoft’s shares in recent years. While the pride of Redmond, Wash., is still trading within the narrow boundaries of a six-year range, Steve Jobs’ garage project has marched up to all-time highs. And Apple has gone absolutely ballistic this quarter, ahead of the late-June release of its long awaited iPhone,” Farley writes.
Farley writes, “So now is the perfect time to sell Apple and buy Microsoft.”
“Say what? Why would I recommend exchanging a rocket ship for a pellet gun? Let’s put it this way: It’s likely that Microsoft will outperform Apple by a wide margin in the next six to 12 months,” Farley writes.
Full article here.
Farley then goes on to explain how he’s arrived at his conclusion that “now is the perfect time to sell Apple and buy Microsoft.” It’s by looking at the patterns in Apple’s and Microsoft’s stock price charts. Of course! We should have known. Farley provides charts with lines superimposed all over them and everything.
Known as the Elliott wave principle, it’s based upon the highly specious art of looking at charts and trying to divine the future of stock prices. In other words, it’s nonsensical fantasy for the weak-minded that sometimes happens to “work,” but oftentimes doesn’t. Visit any horse track in mid-week during business hours to see people following similar “systems.” It ain’t pretty, but it’s a heck of a lot less ugly than trading Apple shares for Microsoft.
Might there be a “sell-the-news” reaction when Apple’s iPhone is finally released? Perhaps. Perhaps not. Waves on a chart won’t tell you. How many can they make, how many can they sell, what’s the profit margin, etc. are much better, more concrete items about which to speculate.
Looking at pretty pictures is no substitute for understanding future prospects, company fundamentals, product and profit potential, sales trends, leadership, etc. Furthermore, if you base your stock buying and selling on looking at pretty pictures, not only are you nuts, but you deserve to fail.
I hope he follows his own advice and goes broke so we don’t have to put up with his maniacal musings again.
That’s funny….
Chuck you Farley! Great name by the way.
Put your $ where your mouth is. Go and short AAPL and buy MSFT.
Come back in the next 6 to 12 months. If you can still afford your internet bill, that is!
Alan Farley speak with forked tongue.
Too bad the “Psychic Friends Network” is gone – Farley would love it!
This is what happens when you buy based on chart analysis. He actually thinks the sock has a cycle to it. If you overlay real life events on the chart you see that Microsoft gets ever smaller boosts as they release ever more disappointing products. On the apple chart you see a huge increase based on a steady stream of successes – the dips being generally related to non-product issues. The last dip was an artificial one based on two components, lack of understanding of Apple’s conservative guidance and fear of a major options scandal that proved to be no big deal.
Stupid is as stupid does
MW: Sales, as in How about Vista?
Stupid advice. However, I will say one thing and that’s that AAPL is over-valued right now.. Even if iPhone sells 2x what analysts expect through 2008, it is already built into AAPL’s current p/e ratio… This rally is pure hype and momentum, which means there will most likely be a sell-off sometime soon..
I still believe in AAPL’s long term propspects, but current values are insanely high for what the company and analysts are projecting through 2008.
He must have a great deal invested in Microsoft stock … and is trying to help his portfolio.
I’ll keep my AAPLs thank you very much. Watch them climb when the iPhone replicates the iPod’s success. Only this time, the market is TEN TIMES bigger.
Right…… I see aapl is up again so far this morning, sound advice. This guy is a “master” something. Next he’ll tell us there is no porn on the internet.
Chuck Farley and that lady in Isreal, both say SELL, SELL, SELL. Cause Apple has gone up, now it must come down.
“I have no idea what Apple sells or why its gone up, but everything must fall, . . . right? . . . . So sell, sell,sell. LOL
Part of knowing stocks is knowing the company and the market.
PS, I do think Apple will drop some when the conf and the iPhone come out. There will be the standard flurry of….. Apple did not introduce the auto-car-wash, the iWash like expected. sell, sell, sell. Apple is doomed.!!!!
It will be a good buying oppertunity.
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en
MDN word thinking, as in WHAT are these people THINKING??
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One day I feel that an analyst might actually get close to correctly predicting what Apple will do in the future, but I’m pretty sure that today isn’t going to be that day and Farley isn’t going to be that analyst.
If he’s so certain about his predictions, he should reveal how many AAPL he has sold and how much MSFT he’s bought, then we can see for ourselves how his fortunes change over the next few months.
Personally, I keep hold of my AAPL thank you.
The Romans practiced a similar analytical art called “haruspicy,” and made predications based upon it. It involved gutting sacrificial animals and examining the pattern and health of the beasts’ entrails. It was just as good as Farley’s methodology.
@ Alan Farley
Farley? You’re a jerk.
A real knee-biter.
-c
Followup. I just checked out his charts and timing and I have to agree with Chuck. Apple will drop some in June-July due to the standard selling of profit takers after the conf and iPhone.
Microsoft has made a showing with the Surface and “looks” innovative and will make fun of Apples drop in price.
HOWEVER, as the iPhones are hard to find with everyone wanting one and the FUD from MS fading to even lower levels (nothing is projected from MS for 3-6 months – new zune nanos due by years end.) the trends will reverse and Apple will soar higher and MS dip even lower. You can make money but you have to act fast. Sell Apple, buy MS, wait about 5 days, then sell MS and buy Apple as the dip bottoms out.
Risky but hey, you are not in the stock market to make money are you????
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en, ps, sorry for previous spelling errors. 🙁
This guy is almost as funny as Chris Farley was.
He and the lady analyst who said “sell Apple” a few weeks
ago should get married and have Chia Pets.
MDN’s notes can sometimes be surprisingly insightful!
Farley is full of barley, after it has been digested. Pete I agree with you!
Interesting “MDN Magic Word = “self”; as like in self serving promotors no doubt.
AAPL has done my portfolio a big favor and I’ll get back in if and when it drops 20%. Opps, now I’ m self serving as well.
His REAL plan?
Get a bunch of Lemmings… Microsoft loving types… to sell their Apple shares, force the price down so that he can buy some Apple shares cheap… because he missed the boat in the first place.
I hear there’s a sale on slightly used brains at Costco this week…
“It involved gutting sacrificial animals and examining the pattern and health of the beasts’ entrails.”
Yeah, I miss college too.
Trading stocks based on technical analysis (charting) is like driving a car down the street, looking through the rear view window.
You can’t get where you are GOING, by watching where you HAVE BEEN.
It’s all in the charts, in the waves, in the stars….I see a sell by June. No, wait…
Ummm….what is it that Apple does again?
Part of knowing stocks is knowing the company and the market.
——————————
En, so how do you explain last year, when AAPL hit an all time high of $86 and then promptly lost nearly half of it’s value and bottomed at $50 just a few short months later? It was a bear-raid, and almost impossible to predict.. What’s to prevent that from happening again? Answer=Nothing.
What I’m trying to say is that just because you know a company does not mean that you can predict the market.. Using traditional stock analysis and techniques would tell us that AAPL is over-valued right now and it’s time to cash out. However, there are a lot of un-experienced investors in the market acting on emotions. There is absolutely no way to predict what will happen.. But go ahead and guess, you have a 50% chance of being correct.
Alan Farkely is the Microsoft version of Daniel Eran. Can’t have one without the other. Think of Farkley and Eran as the irrational mucilage that keeps the yin and yang in balance. Without these two, the universe would unravel into a random conglomeration of subatomic particles in space thus no WWDC 2007.