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Lets see....

400,000 x $300 = $120 million

That would seem to have almost certainly paid for the R & D so if it is not a loss leader and is making a profit with very little promotion, why should it be cut from the line up?

Seems like Swann should go find himself another ugly duckling to persecute.

do so, MDN.

Dec 21, 07 - 12:27 am Comment from: TowerTone

I have decided, whether a rental model is offered or not, to buy an TV in 2008, even if on closeout, just because of this dickhead's smugness.

I can afford $300.00, even if I never plugged it in (which I would).

Some "boisism" to flame about, MacRealPeteR.

"Lets see....400,000 x $300 = $120 million"

So Apple has Zero costs? iSuppli estimated there were $237 of parts in an Apple TV. That leaves $62/unit before all other costs are subtracted (And those costs are amortization of development costs, cost of shipping the unit from China and to stores, warehousing and selling the unit, costs of store space and staff, marketing costs, and other internal Apple overhead related to the device). So it sounds like there's very little money in Apple TV to begin with.

Dec 21, 07 - 12:36 am Comment from: LorD1776

TT,

I'm right behind you buddy. I'm gonna sell my wife's car (she needs the exercise) and buy as many as I can. We'll show those sonsabitches!

Dec 21, 07 - 12:40 am Comment from: LorD1776

Do the Math,

That's pretty impressive. Do you use a calculator or just take off your shoes?

Dec 21, 07 - 12:44 am Comment from: TowerTone

Oh, Lord.
Tell her if she is wearing the spandex I will pick her up. Again.....

Dec 21, 07 - 12:45 am Comment from: Buster

What an iTurd. I am just waiting for the 2.0 revision for me to buy one. Why in hell would Apple drop it until at least after they listen to feedback and made some alterations they see beneficial. If nothing comes of it then I can see it but not this early.

the only reason i haven't got one is cos my TV isn't HD ready and I suspect Apple is missing out on a lot of sales because of this.

I love my aTV. I use it mostly for home movies, I have over 200 and for photos. It is also nice to scan YouTube and preview trailers to see if there is a movie I might like (unfortunately, the answer is usually no).

Dec 21, 07 - 01:04 am Comment from: Brau

... hmmm .... what to do .... hmmm ... I need hits so I can buy a Wii for young Bobby .... Eureka!!!! I know, Everyone's saying the TV will improve, so I'll say it's gonna get axed - just after an update! Mwahahaha!

Wii Wii Wii, all the way home!

(Think before you click)

What a nerd.

Dec 21, 07 - 01:21 am Comment from: Randian

Hey, MicroSloth damned near busted a gut trying to sell a million Zunes in its first year (and probably didn't succeed, at that)! Does this guy have the balls to call the Zune a bust as well? Will he predict the Zune's cancellation? Doubtful.

The only thing holding iTV back right now is studio reluctance to cooperate with his Steveness. Let's see if NBC's going bankrupt will change their minds, not to mention their negative momentum, any.

Dec 21, 07 - 01:55 am Comment from: TheConfuzed1

All I'm waiting for is a subscription system, and I'm in. I'd also like to see DVR capabilities, but it won't be a deal killer not to have that since I currently have it through my cable provider. It would be nice though, to be able to cancel my cable DVR, and pay that cost toward an Apple-sponsored service, because quite frankly, my cable company's DVR is not dependable. Sometimes it simply "chooses" not to record a scheduled program. It's very frustrating.

Reality Check:

"If Apple improve[s] the hardware (optical sound output as a minimum, audiophile quality components...)"

It has does have optical audio, HDMI and component connectors. Check for yourself.

http://www.apple.com/appletv/specs.html

Me so horny....Think before you dick --> http://www.apple.com/tv

"and a ill-conceived business model that expects people to buy TV shows that they'll watch once."

Yeah, I guess that's why the market for Box-sets DVD's of TV shows is doing so horribly... oh, wait? What? It's booming? Oh, never mind then.

Dec 21, 07 - 02:46 am Comment from: MacBill

Why must MacDailyNews blindly defend everything that Apple does, and try to put a positive spin on everything that Apple does? MacDailyNews, it doesn't make a different how you try to spin it -- the AppleTV is a CRAPPY PRODUCT with ZERO DEMAND and LACKLUSTER FEATURES.

Dec 21, 07 - 02:49 am Comment from: Jubei

"Please note that Phillip Swann also called Apple’s video-capable iPod a "bust" and predicted, "The video iPod will be Steve Jobs' folly."

So this doofus has already made himself a fool with the ViPod prediction. Yet he's back to troll for more attention? Okay lets give it to him. As long as we remind him of that idiotic prediction on the ViPod each time we post anything he's featured that allows commenting.

Dec 21, 07 - 03:25 am Comment from: ken1w

What a fool. For one thing, Apple intentionally limited the audience for Apple TV by requiring an HD-capable TV. The second self-imposed limitation was to market the device mostly to people who already used iPods and/or Macs (and therefore iTunes). Apple often releases a new type of device to a smaller market as a "field test" with "friendly" customers. Look at the iPod. During the first year, it only worked with Macs that had a FireWire port. The early adopters helped test the hardware and software to make the device better.

During the next year or so, two factors will make Apple TV ready for a larger market (and more marketing). First, a higher percentage of people will own HDTVs over time. Second, there will no doubt be some type of iTunes Store video rental service and upgrade to HD content, and that will make Apple TV more useful and desirable. Besides, Apple certainly is NOT losing money on Apple TV by selling "only" 800,000 units in the first year; there is no reason to "dump Apple TV" even if sales continued at the current rate.

If Apple added and Blue-Ray and PVR like EyeTV to the AppleTV I would be buying one. That's gonna be a killer product for me

"Why must MacDailyNews blindly defend everything that Apple does, and try to put a positive spin on everything that Apple does? MacDailyNews, it doesn't make a different how you try to spin it -- the AppleTV is a CRAPPY PRODUCT with ZERO DEMAND and LACKLUSTER FEATURES."

800,000 units in a year is "zero demand"? Wow, we must be operating with very different conceptions of "zero".

AppleTV is in it's infancy, but so was the iPod at one time, and there again people claimed it was a dud, doomed to failure, not good enough, crappy, lacking important features like an FM radio, overpriced, etc...

When will people learn that Apple knows what it's doing? Better than most of you people do, anyways, unless any of you run a highly successful billion-dollar multinational corporation.

I am with MacBill on this one. I'd have bought it if I believed in Apple TV.
I live in Canada and they sell Apple TV here while they added TV shows to iTunes only this month. come on, give me a break

Dec 21, 07 - 05:29 am Comment from: Connor MacBook

Apple TV is still waiting for the world to catch up. When it does ... BOOM!!!

Apple TV + Handbrake.

AWESOME

" there is no reason to "dump Apple TV" even if sales continued at the current rate."

But the Mac faithful have already gone out and got all the AppleTVs they want. Where are the next 800,000 sales going to come from? It seems this product only appeals to people who have already drunk the cool aid.

Now that Steve Jobs has been pissed off by the tv industry this this guys remarks... Apple TV isn't going anywhere but up... with the additional marketing due out in 2008!

But I would like to see the new improved Apple TV sporting a new combined look... that of both Apple tv and wireless feature in one box... hell I would even pay a little more for that feature! Plus of course HD and a larger Hard Drive...

Dec 21, 07 - 06:29 am Comment from: R

People want their tv experience to be bigger than Apple tv currently provides. Minimal content is obtained via the internet right now, and AppleTV doesn't really offer that much new value to tv watching-- none of these boxes do yet. Really, such a box should give us entry into all internet media, offering a new viewing experience all together. HD content is good, but people live with crappy online video all the time and don't care that much; VCR quality is acceptable, too. The real issue is content. And currently, the stuff out of Hollywood is not that compelling. There's more creativity coming from regular folks with no budgets.

When AppleTV provides access to the web in a useable format-- like the Podcast Channel, so you don't have to download through iTunes all the time, it might be a start, I think. The cool thing is that the direction of this product type hasn't really been determined yet. Once someone hits on the right formula, there may be a very notable change in peoples media consuming behavior. Another paradigm shift...

The Confuzed1 says: "All I'm waiting for is a subscription system, and I'm in."

=======================

That's all I need in my life, another damned subscription. I only have about 37 of them. What I think most people want is an HD rental model. I pay for what I want to watch (rental), when I want to watch it (probably once), instead of paying Apple $19.99 per month in perpetuity. If they give us a choice between subscription and pay per rental, that's fine, but if they force me into a subscription model, I will not be purchasing an Apple TV.

'"Lets see....400,000 x $300 = $120 million"

So Apple has Zero costs? iSuppli estimated there were $237 of parts in an Apple TV'

iSuppli are full of sh*t. Apple's not stupid, they would have some very good deals with a lot of the parts as they are in multiple products of theres. iSuppli has claimed a lot of pricing on Apple products but forget that Apple doesn't pay what the rest of the world pays. Apple would earn over $100 per Apple TV and I'm sure $40,000,000 covers the development costs and gives them a nice little profit. Not to mention the sale of TV shows, Movies and Music. You should also note they've only really marketed the product on their website and in store, which is cheap advertising for them.

Lets not forget the iPod was never an overnight hit, I only really heard about it around generation 3. And then I never owned one until the first nano came out. Apple TV is a future product, it's only for people that like to have the bandwidth to download lots of movies, and for people that love new gadgets for their tv. ATM dvds are still the best and most affordable way to watch movies, and they probably will be for another 3 or 4 years, then blu-ray will eat HD-DVD and will become affordable enough to take over DVD - This may also be the time people move to digital movies as a convenience thing. Apple TV is not going to disappear whilst Jobs is in charge, because jobs isn't going to watch the movie industry go down like the music industry has. He's got in early to prevent this from happening. I don't think he really cares that much about selling millions yet, he just want to provide an alternative to illegally downloading movies.

Dec 21, 07 - 07:36 am Comment from: Zune Tang®

Why stop at Apple TV? There is absolutely no interest from consumers for expensive and proprietary toy MACs that can't play games and most music enthusiasts are switching to Microsoft's fantastic Zune from their too little, too late I-PODs. Dump them both, I say.

One more thing Apple should dump to save themselves is that ridiculous OS X abomination. Without OS X Apple would then be free and clear to license Windows from Microsoft. Problems solved.

Your potential. Our passion.™

Phillip Swann, has the huevos to make his opinions public. Of course, few here posts their real names and places of employment much less links to YouTube.

It's easy to make bold assertions with total anonymity, in fact, it's completely spineless.

AppleTV is a product slightly ahead of its time. A simple elegant device for storing all the family's media, rented and bought will be the future.

For this product to be a winner it has to be developed and that is what I expect. Expect a more powerful version and a novel way of getting HD content onto the device without having to download.

Dec 21, 07 - 08:17 am Comment from: Macromancer

Macromancer predicts in a year Swanni's quote will be gleefully posted here weekly right next to the Laura Goldman quote.

See, I can predict things too.

Dec 21, 07 - 08:18 am Comment from: Macromancer

"If Apple doesn't wake up, the Apple TV will be consigned to history as a failed product."

I love how people overuse the phrase "wake up" as if they are the only ones with some sort of insight.
Trust me, Apple doesn't need to 'wake up'. They know exactly what they are doing. AppleTV will be a big moneymaker for Apple in the years to come.

Once people know what the AppleTV does they are very interested. I have had two people ask me about mine in the last week. I've never been asked about it since I have owned it. Everyone that sees it is amazed. I mostly use mine for music, and podcasts, but also have a lot of DVD rips and bittorrent TV shows. I think that as Apple adds features, it will accelerate the sales of AppleTV. They are accounting for the revenue over two years, so I am assuming that YouTube is not going to be the only added functionality that they are going to do. If you look at what the hackers have been able to get it to do, you can see the potential.

Dec 21, 07 - 08:45 am Comment from: DLMeyer

Hey, Fred, what's "anonymous" about my name? People hate me in multiple spaces, not just here. As many listen to me as The Voice of G.L.Horton's Stage Page every day. (and some say I have no shame!) Logins are a Good Thing, you ought to get one before you start defending trolls.
My 3G iPod caused a fight on the trip to "Grandma's House" yesterday. It so confused my wife and frustrated me that we went for an hour with no music at all. FINALLY we got a break and I got to actually see what she was "seeing" ... stuck on the "Settings" menu, she had set it to "Repeat ... One". I like Ella F, honest, but the fourth time through one song was too much for me. OK, my wife is not STUPID ... just a bit inept. Had I not been able to"fix" it, she'd have driven ALL the way home.

Dec 21, 07 - 08:56 am Comment from: LinuxGuyAndMacProdigalSon

Apple TV establishes the centerpiece in Apple's home entertainment initiative. It creates the needed retail channels and gives various allies a target to design to.

In addition, along with the Mac, iPhone, iPod touch and any other coming OS X enabled devices, Apple is putting on a squeeze play to force developers and websites to support open standards, including open codecs. This never was a battle that was going to be won by blitzkrieg. This is a strategic campaign aimed to clear away the DRM and proprietary roadblocks that Mafiasoft has used to control and dominate the web.

For example; Apple's ally Google has committed to providing H.264 encoded content for YouTube content. Adobe has announced that it will provide the same support inside of flash.

As the Mac takes a significant chunk of market share from Windows based boxes, Apple TV will gain in its capabilities ON APPLE'S TERMS. And when the strategic campaign is won, a massive banquet of crow will await the moron analysts and pundits without the brains to see the real nature of the war for the living room.

Here's my prediction...

Apple recently trademarked Triple Play because that is what your Movie rental scheme amounts to, 3 plays for something like $2.99. There will also be a new Apple TV unit in 2008.

Let's see who's right, the all knowing Phil or a nitwit like me. My money says we're gonna be calling this guy "Mr. Goldman" pretty soon.

Dec 21, 07 - 09:03 am Comment from: Denny

@LinuxGuyAndMacProdigalSon

Well put. I couldn't have said it better myself. Nor would I have attempted to.

Can you pick a shorter name?

Dec 21, 07 - 09:36 am Comment from: Ferf Muckmeyer

Wait until Steve-o's keynote. If nothing is said about AppleTV, then we should be scratching our heads as to the future of this device.

fm

Dec 21, 07 - 09:36 am Comment from: Ampar

"It's easy to make bold assertions with total anonymity, in fact, it's completely spineless."


Beautiful irony there, "Fred".

Dec 21, 07 - 09:43 am Comment from: Sixvodkas

My Mac IS my TV (thanks, ElGato!), so I've no need for an AppleTV.
Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

Maybe Fred is his real name?

I mean, how many could there be?

Steve Jobs is waiting for new Apple Cinema displays with HDMI and (maybe) another model with an ATSC tuner, along with the full-fledged movie rental service before launching an improved Apple TV with a full-press marketing plan.

Apple's already put the necessary 802.11n WiFi and a backup strategy in place and added gigabit Ethernet to the Airport Express. But, he would never launch a major marketing campaign in an important consumer electronics category without HD-ready Apple Cinema displays...After all, the display is the most prominent component in any HDTV system, and Jobs will want an Apple logo on the display, to compete directly against Sony. If H-P can sell HDTV's and Sony can sell computers, Apple can sell HDTVs.

Dec 21, 07 - 10:12 am Comment from: Will

Swanni, what tool you are! C'mon, can't you see the future from where you're sitting?

Apple TV is positioned to become the biggest sleeper hit of 2008.

See, I can make wild ass predictions too, only mine are more accurate.

(^_^)

Actually, Apple TV can be embarrassed. Someone came to my Christmas party with a Zune and the thing actually said "I'm embarrassed for you." Now I'm scared to sleep in my own home.

Dec 21, 07 - 10:35 am Comment from: Ampar

"Maybe Fred is his real name?"

Good point. It's probably how he's known worldwide like Cher, Madonna or Liberace.

Right, said Fred?

Dec 21, 07 - 10:41 am Comment from: BillH

Okay. Everyone who started a new business last year and generated 120 million in revenue raise your hands.

Mr. Swann? Mr. Swann...are you telling me that TV predictions.com did less than 1 million in revenue? And your putting the shutters up when????

Dec 21, 07 - 11:02 am Comment from: LorD1776

TT,
Yeah, she told me about that little incident. And she DID say LITTLE!
I don't know which creeps me out more - the thought of my wife in Spandex or me in a Speedo. Not a pretty picture.

Dec 21, 07 - 11:09 am Comment from: LorD1776

Fred,

I knew Fred. Fred was a friend of mine. You're not Fred.

Fred Mertz posts here. He is the true Fred. He and his wife Ethel are famous celebrities known world wide. So there!