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Sat, Nov 21, 2009 - 06:36 PM EST  —  AAPL: 199.92 (-0.59, -0.29%)  |  NASDAQ: 2146.04 (-10.78, -0.5%)

Why Apple will be bigger than Google
Tuesday, November 06, 2007 - 10:29 AM EST

"Time has named Apple's iPhone its invention of the year. The iPhone is a big deal, but not for any of the reasons Time cites. The nonrelease of the Googlephone just highlights what Apple gets about consumers, and what Google doesn't. Apple knows how to design not just gadgets, but the businesses that go around them. And as a result, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple is worth more than Google within two years," Jordan Golson writes for Valleywag.

"What's really innovative about the iPhone? Well, the multitouch screen, perhaps. But other than that, its commodity parts expertly engineered together. If Apple sells 50 million iPhones in 2009, those phones will generate more than $30 billion in gross profit over the next two years. And when I say gross profit, I mean really gross," Golson writes.

Golson writes, "Apple's iPhone is more than just an invention. It has all the makings of a killer business. As for Google -- weren't they going to make a phone once?"

Full article here.

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Nov 06, 07 - 10:38 am Comment from: Whatever

First killer post!

Nov 06, 07 - 10:39 am Comment from: tagurit

So I should sell my google, and buy more apple? sale executed, on my iPhone!!!

Nov 06, 07 - 10:43 am Comment from: HueyLong

There is a partnership between these two companies, they share members on the board. I can't imagine that even if Google were to produce a phone, that it'd compete in the same space as Apple's.

And a thought occurred to me that maybe - with VOIP - the gPhone is infact the iPod Touch, that'd have this feature built in. This wouldn't affect the ATandT contract and could nip MS in the bud from producing anything in that area either. What I'm not sure about, is how that'd affect the iPhone [ie. whether it'd cannibalise sales of iPhone]. I think not, IF the phone feature is restricted to VOIP.

Nov 06, 07 - 10:44 am Comment from: p shanks

makes you wonder what real purpose Eric Schmidt has on the Apple BOD. Why not make some google content exclusive to the iphone?

Nov 06, 07 - 10:47 am Comment from: Macromancer

If they partner, I hope it's to get this 700mhz spectrum that's being auctioned in 08. Future content delivery is going to be based on fat wireless pipes because laying fiber is too damn expensive and will take too long to implement.

If Apple gets this spectrum, or access to it, look for lots of great ways to use your iphone in the coming years.

It's all about content delivery now.

Nov 06, 07 - 10:47 am Comment from: maclover

Everyone brags about google Gmail, but when I last looked, it'd been beta for 2 years, and what's to say it won't be free, or exclusive when it does come out. This style of management may elude the less savvy, but I personally have to question their goals.
When you really compare them to Apple, there is no comparison.

Nov 06, 07 - 10:48 am Comment from: Brain farts are good

In the long run, I see a partnership between the two companies being the key for both to succeed.

Apple may in fact need Google more in terms of on-line applications and cloud services. Together they shall conquer, separate they may fall to MS and the gang.

About dollars and cents...
if that is all you care about... then you don't understand Apple.

Get some sense.

Nov 06, 07 - 10:48 am Comment from: Bizarro Ballmer

Wait until that "NANO" phone comes out next year. Lowend vs. highend ipod/iphone.

Nov 06, 07 - 10:52 am Comment from: Frank

It's obvious Google and Apple are working together to offset Microsoft. Microsoft competes in the low end and the high end. Apple only competes in the high end, and Google only competes in the low end. Having a Gphone gives Apple space to focus on the iPhone, and vice versa.

Nov 06, 07 - 10:54 am Comment from: Howie

Ahhhhhhh, we all have been "Dutched Ovened" by
p shanks comment !!!

Yeah... lets just make Google totally EXCLUSIVE
to Apple and Safari users.

Great idea. Doh! Once Apple is worth more and buys out Google.

NOT... I think Apple has better plans.

Nov 06, 07 - 11:02 am Comment from: lbuschjr

What Google is doing is taking advantage of the fractured OS status in the mobile phone market. There are so many OSes in mobile phones, and none of them work very well. Throw in the fact that Microsoft doesn't have a stranglehold on the mobile OS market, and it's ripe for someone to come along and produce an OS which makes using mobile phones easier.

I find it amusing that these experts think Google is just going to "make a phone," like it's an easy thing to do and like Google can do it just because Apple did.

What these experts forget is that Apple is a hardware company first. A hardware company which realized early on that the success of its hardware is the ease and pleasure with which the consumer can use it. Hence, Apple makes great software to use on its hardware. Apple lives off of its Mac, iPod and iPhone lines. OS X, iLife, iWork, etc. support the hardware lines.

Google is a software company. Google has no experience – nada, zilch, zip – in hardware design, let along hardware design which could even approach Apple's abilities. Google could invest billions in hardware designers, engineers, facilities, materials, and come out with just another phone. It makes much more sense for Google to capture the mobile phone market (that which Apple doesn't grab) via software, not hardware.

There won't be a Gphone, not unless Google partners with some handset maker to produce one. And if that's the case, it won't be anything special.

Nov 06, 07 - 11:07 am Comment from: @Golson

I really don't think that she gets it. Yes the first part is right, but "you have to skate to where the puck will be". Apple sells on the high end (oK middle to high end). There really is little profit in selling loss leaders. :-(

And Google sells information and services paid for by ad revenue. That is their business model. Google might support a goggle phone but I just do not see them making one. Not in their business model. And in 2-3 years when Google gets the phone makers --- sort of -- playing nice and using common software, where will Apple be then???

Its a complex game and only Apple knows where its going but I will guess its in the "integration and simplification" arena. Places like that bring toys and fun to the average person and take the ball away from Microsoft (who just wants to make it fancer and harder to do -- aka their "home media server" LOL ) PS, why would any average person (who can barely use their computer now) want to add another level of computing skill required (aka adding a server) to their life. Apple already automatically acts as a group server for both Apple and PCs and Appletv etc. If you have iTunes you already have a server system in your house. grin

Later,
en

Nov 06, 07 - 11:37 am Comment from: Jacob

Google is doing what Google should be: focusing on their core business, which is offering "free" products supported by ad revenue. The only way to expand this revenue is to expand to new markets, and in the cell phone market with the fractured OS's this would be difficult so they designed their own.

Don't fool yourself, the purpose of any google endeavor right now is to generate ad revenue. They are just a glorified advertising agency that uses technology as their means. Gmail is a great example. Sure, it's free email, it's all wonderful, but you have to agree to let them scan your email for keywords and show you targeted advertising. I'm sure it will be much the same for the services on the phone. It's just how google rolls. I'm sure it's only a matter of time before Youtube has some form of text-ads or something... it's already being used by companies for advertising TV shows and such, not to mention viral advertising.

Nov 06, 07 - 11:48 am Comment from: DWJ

Apple + Google seems like a great pairing. I think they could complement each other very nicely.

Interesting to see if Google is really interested in making hardware.

Nov 06, 07 - 12:13 pm Comment from: CaveDwellers

"Interesting to see if Google is really interested in making hardware."

Have you all been living in cave for the last week? They have already published that they have no interest in making the hardware, only working with other phone vendors.

Nov 06, 07 - 12:38 pm Comment from: BustingTheSkullsOfIdiots

Google is at the top of their game with a thousand startups gunning for them. I don't think they'll be around forever or even long term.

Nov 06, 07 - 12:42 pm Comment from: larry tate

I have always thought that the gPhone is the iPhone. Google and Apple will bid together on open airwaves. More iPhones and touch products on the way... as long as the US economy stays in place the stocks should flourish.

Nov 06, 07 - 01:35 pm Comment from: Raymond from DC

No, the gPhone is not the iPhone, and I doubt the two will bid together on open airwaves. Their business models are just too different. Google makes money by promoting the purchase of other people's stuff, while Apple makes money when you buy or use their own stuff. Apple makes money on both the razor (computers, media players) and the blades (music, phone service).

The gPhone is just a software reference platform which hurts only Symbian and Microsoft, leaving Apple unscathed. But it makes no money unless it can sell advertising or services. Of the two approaches, Apple is the less risky and the more lucrative.

Nov 06, 07 - 02:04 pm Comment from: RealWorld

50 million iPhones? What a dumbass.....this kind of hoo haa gives Mac people a bad name, it's just ridiculous...and I hold Apple stock, I'd love to be wrong...but I'm not.

Nov 06, 07 - 02:11 pm Comment from: Brau

Google never said they would make a phone. It was all media hype. Those who thought Google would make a phone simply weren't paying attention to one simple fact; Google has never been in the hardware business, they are an information/software company. As a software company themselves, Apple has NO need for Google's new OS, but if it does become a standard, Apple could easily incorporate those features into their own iPhone.

I was much more interested to hear Mr Jobs had been talking to VON. This would seem to indicate he is definitely looking for ways around the current cell networks; once again hoping to change the world by freeing up full internet access to everyone, instead of the semi blocked access the cell providers offer.

MDN word: Faith

Nov 06, 07 - 02:15 pm Comment from: Spark

@ Jacob
"They are just a glorified advertising agency that uses technology as their means. "

They are actually a media company selling ad space. An ad agency works for advertisers to select from a full range of media spaces to best communicate their clients message to various audiences. Google sells space on Google owned media outlets, and will never guide a client to Yahoo, etc. Hence, they are not an ad agency.

Nov 06, 07 - 02:21 pm Comment from: @RealWorld

The iPhone hasn't even debuted in Europe yet. And what about Asia? iPhone sales will explode when it is available in Asian markets. And who knows how many different models will be available by then. 50 million iPhones sold in 2009 is probably attainable.

Nov 06, 07 - 02:58 pm Comment from: Olmecmystic

I agree that Google plans to take advantage of the fractured status of the cell phone OS market and wants to unify that market around open standards in order to sell their ads to you/me/us on the go.

I disagree that Apple is a hardware company first. I've said elsewhere on MDN that Apple is a software company first MASQUERADING as a hardware company (they've even got YOU fooled).

Take OS X away from Apple and their whole business model collapses. There goes their ease of use, their differentiation from Windoze, their interoperability with the Windoze world, their Unix-based security advantage, etc.

Take away iTunes and you couldn't register your iPhone, you couldn't dump all your media (music especially) onto your iPod/iPhone, you couldn't organize your media as elegantly, etc.

Take away the iLife apps and the Mac loses its differentiation (again) vs. Windoze (no bloatware, only useful-ware) and its right-out-of-the-box functionality for a newbie/switcher.

It would take someone else to speak more expertly than me about Apple's killer Pro apps and how and why they've long dominated the high-end creative markets, but once again we're talking about software driving hardware (Mac Pro) sales.

And don't forget that OS X itself is also based around open standards, so it begins to become obvious what Apple and Google are doing (in concert, I believe). They're orchestrating a gradual takeover of the marketplace from M$ and their proprietary Windoze-based B.S. and instead steering everyone towards open standards, period.

I say more power to 'em and the sooner the better!

Peace.
Olmecmystic wink

Nov 06, 07 - 03:29 pm Comment from: Apple is hardware 1st

I agree mostly with Olmecmystic but i think Apple is a hardware company 1st because their revenue relies on selling units of hardware that runs Apple software rather than Apple software by itself (FileMaker is an exception).

I don't know if Apple will ever be worth more than Google in the future. In terms of potential, Google can grow as the internet progresses while Apple needs to manufacture a product.

Nov 06, 07 - 04:31 pm Comment from: Tyler

50 million iPhones in 2009? or by 2009? By 2009 - perhaps (a bit lofty though), in the fiscal year of 2009, no way in hell. Apple Growing lager than Google in 2 years, that is also laughable. I mean, I'd love to see it happen because I have a bit over 3100 shares of AAPL but I have a better chance of winning the lottery in the next 2 years than Apple being worth more than Google in the same time frame.

Nov 06, 07 - 05:47 pm Comment from: Mark

I read an article a while back about the Boards of Directors of Apple, Microsoft, and Google. The article discussed how Apple and Google share board members and how there's a lot of "cross pollination" between the two companies. Interestingly, there is almost no cross pollination between Apple and Microsoft or Google and Microsoft.

I read another article (this one on seekingalpha.com) discussing how Microsoft is fighting a two-front war and failing on both fronts: it is making a feeble attempt to fight an OS war against Apple's way-superior Leopard, and a failing attempt against Google to conquer the web space.

I don't think anyone will shed tears for Microsoft though.

Nov 06, 07 - 05:51 pm Comment from: Mark

Regarding whether Apple is a hardware vs. software company, at the recent technology conference discussion between Walter Mossberg, Steve Jobs, and Bill Gates, Jobs said that Apple is primarily a software company. He said they make some beautiful, front-end hardware, but the engine that sells everything--what makes all the hardware usable--is software; elegant, powerful, intuitive software.

Nov 06, 07 - 08:09 pm Comment from: MPC Guy

>" just highlights what Apple gets about consumers, and what Google doesn't. "

That being said, there are many things that Google can do that Apple can't or refuses to do:

- True partnership with 2nd and 3rd party developers
- Open architecture/ecosystem
- Willingness to support hardware you don't manufacture

... and there are the smaller iPhone gripes:
- Video capabilities
- Multimedia SMS
- Voice Recorder
- Messaging Integration

Of course, no one other than Google can say that the "smaller gripes" will be implemented, but it's harder to imagine them not included.

Will Apple be bigger than Google? That question is bigger than the iPhone or G-Phone platform.

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