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Every time I go in the Apple Store (almost everyday) The line at the iPhone display tables is 3 to 5 people deep - you can't tell me that no one is looking at the phone..

What company do you know that reports quarterly results after business hours on the last Friday of the quarter? I suspect that even Saturday's activations may not have been included.

As I've stated before. I've only seen two other iPhones at my place of employment with 1,300 employees. Most of whom pull a decent engineering salary.

I think this is all over hyped. The iPhone rocks. It really is revolutionary. Just give it some time to gain traction with the masses. So many people are interested in the phone. They just need time to get over the sticker shock and purchase one of their own.

Is it just me, or is it wrong that AT&T;gives out this depth of information? Why can't they call them new customers - those who really are? Why do they have to break out iphones as opposed to other phones? Leave that kind of info to Apple.

To me, this is just another way of how AT&T;shows they are a poor corporate match for JobsCo. Also, you could argue the quarter ended at 6pm on Friday June 29, as that's the last BUSINESS day of the quarter.

Those of us who bought iphones online that first weekend are just receiving and activating them now. Just got mine yesterday.

Tech analysts are dumb. Sure, the people who camped in line for hours probably rushed home to activate their phones right away (save for the ones they bought as gifts, as a previous poster mentioned). But lots of people who bought on Saturday probably didn't bother with it right away. To many people, a new device like this (even one from Apple) is a pretty daunting task, with software and drivers and etc. that need to be installed, cables that need to be hooked up underneath the desk, etc. People simply have better things to do on a Saturday afternoon, and probably figured that they'd get started with the device on Sunday instead.

Got mine Friday afternoon and didn't get it activated until Monday (thanks to Verizon not releasing my number), so I know my phone wasn't counted against sales/activation.

There was a lot of iPhone activation for a few days, however this is a already highly saturated market. To have a few hundred thousand activations in a few days is pretty good.

As time goes on, if the iPhone lives up to potential and people find a use for it, they will perhaps upgrade their current phone for a iPhone.

But remmeber, a lot of people are already in lenghtly contracts.

Most people just want a cheap reliable phone with a slim profile and a long battery life.

Lot's of companies give free phones for wireless contracts.

The iPhone is the top of the line device at a top of the line price, not many people want or need such a device.

It may attract those already in the market and the Apple religious, but it's a slim market and not to be confused with the black hole market that was the iPod/Mp3 player market.

The mobile phone market is saturated. Expect iPhone sales to closely match iPod HiFi sales.

In that regard, sell your stock and take your profit.

@ whatever....


I agree, at the Manhattan Village store in California there are always a group of people playing with the iPhone. This is the majority of the store, so interest is high here as well.

I must assume the person writing was just another troll on the paper with little ground pounding. Just another dumb.... opps hold that thought!!!!

Ohhhh... the truth is out there

to Diz,

your place of work might not be a benchmark - you have to take samples from many places of work....

I for example have seen it with many everytime I go to Barnes and Nobles.

Neither me nor you can generalize and draw conclusions from this.

Bought mine on the first sunday. <---- not counted.

Spent about a half hour at a party saturday night demoing the iPhone for interested people. Did the same thing at a restaurant the next morning.

People are interested in it and when they see it, what usually follows is a chorus of oohs and aaahss.

We'll see tomorrow...

OF COURSE

Apple was kind of dumb to release the iPhone at the very end of AT&T;'s quarter in order to get misleading activating numbers like this.

Then again, it could have been PLANNED!!

Stock manipulaters.

I gotta agree with "whatever" on this one. I strolled by my Apple store on Sunday and it always has a number of people looking at the iPhones.

i have to agree with the first post, it is still a table of phones several people deep at the local store here....

and i know 4 people who bought phones, and none of the 4 had it activated in the time period they are talking about. 2 bought after that, and the other 2 charged them all night after buying.

...and how many were bought online? and just activating them now?

this is a terrible measure of phone sales. good time to buy stock though before it shoots up on the next really bit of info or big hardware release.

I was starting to worry that the MDN FUD machine had been disabled.

AT&T;steasl SJ's thunder the day before Appl announces their quarterly results ?

I think AT&T;know better than to piss SJ off by blabbing numbers

I was in the Apple store at lunch late last week in Cambridge MA and at least 2 iphones were bought in the 10 minutes I was there. Every iphone on display had someone playing with it.

I bought an armband for my nano....blue.

There are loads of harry Potter books left in the stores too - that does not negate that the new Potter novel is the largest selling book ever.

Yea, you could be right "marty the mouse"


Steve could have planned this so to make the reports looked really dumb as they follow the trails of crumbs. Just to release real sales figures and have those numbers snap them in the rearend. With little recourse to correct their blundering glee.

The Steve RDF is still in full op and twisting the hell out of the reporters with preset bias.

Yea, from an iPhone user!!!

The BIG issue MDN did NOT mention is that online sales that first weekend would not have been activated the same weekend. (Kudos to "Jooop" for pointing this out, above.)
My prediction for first weekend sales (from 6 PM Friday until 12 midnight Sunday): 400,000 to 450,000 iPhones
It would have been more if they hadn't sold out in so many stores. I bet Apple/ATT sold over 1 million in the first 7 days.
This is an AAPL buying opportunity!

The iPhone didn't go on sale until 6:00pm on 29 June, so that means it is a 30-hour period, assuming the stores were open 24 hours a day, which they weren't. Assuming the store were open 6-10 on Friday and 10-10 on Saturday, that means that 16 hours of sales resulted in 146,000 activations. That means that there were over 152 activations for every minute of iPhone sales.

Sounds like a big success to me.

Maybe we've all been victims of the hype.

The extent of my own disappointment at this news was a bit like a cold shower. Even if, for all the reasons mentioned above, AT&T;'s numbers are conservative, the final figure is going to be way below my original estimates.

I think tomorrow, Steve Jobs should announce the up-to-date number sold.

This would prevent any further wild speculation, whether bullish or bearish.

I still believe the iPhone is going to be a big success and that it will revolutionize the cell-phone market; but it might just take longer than many of us thought.

Tthe real FUD is coming from the CIBC. I have seen no decrease in interest in the iPhone in Apple stores or with my iPhone.

I think after the recent run Apple has had with the stock, we can expect some bumps over the next few months. The stock is priced for perfection and the market is looking for a way to talk negative about it. If you can't handle 10% to 15% corrections, you may want to sell.

The real story with Apple is over the next five years. If you believe that the iPhone with continue to gain share and the Mac with continue to gain share, Apple will be worth a lot more money in five years.

No one is looking at the phone? WHAT? Are they saying people are not even interested in looking at it? Hell I looked at the Zune (just to laugh at it).




F.U.D. If I ever read it...

Hmmmm.

So all the reports of AT&T;'s network being "overloaded" by the unusually high volume of activations in those early days are because of... lower than expected activation numbers?

Something doesn't seem right here.

I was just in the Irvine, CA Apple Store this past weekend, and overheard an employee telling a girl "Sorry, we only have 1 4 GB iPhone available at the moment." Meanwhile there were at least a dozen people around the iPhone display either playing with, or clamoring to play with, the iPhone.

@ MDN

Short Circuit? Wow, that's digging. ;P

Seems like to be inline to what some of my friends that are in the mobile industry. Basically saying that the iPhone is nothing more than a dumbdown smartphone thats overpriced. It would never sell or even dent the smartphone market. So the numbers pretty much jive. I don't agree with them, but this report sorta gives them the ammo at the moment.

I thought that AT&T;stores, only 1800 or so, sold out in two days or so, and Apple stores weren't much better. That we know.
So what do AT&T;'s activation numbers have to do with the first two day sales? Tip of the iceberg. How big was the iceberg? Apparently about the same size as the available inventory at introduction.

Also, if sales are to be taken into income over 24 months, then two days sales would be completely excluded, a fulll month has to transpire to book one-twenty fourth of the income. In other words, for Apple, no income booked at all until July is over.

CIBC has lost a lot of cred with this call. Is it in the business of talking stock down to make a killing on the over-reaction?

RIM is down $5.64 whilst AAPL is down $3.40 as I write @l.43 p.m. Why is RIM down, competition from AAPL? Fear?

AT&T;stores had very limited supplies on the 29th. I bought (i.e. paid for) mine at 8 pm on the 29th, but didn't receive it until the 3rd.

A company can't book a sale that has not shipped so no online sales will show in Apple's qtr either. It would surprise me to see that activations thru 12 counted but claim appears to be from internal newsletter and says 30 hours so 12 eastern would seem to be the cutoff. Lots of people will not have completed activation of sold units so I'm expecting a large surprise from Apple tomorrow evening.

My guess: they sold about 160,000 on Friday and Saturday and about half that rate every day since (on average). So by now they've sold about 1.1 million.

Is that 30 Hours on the East coast or West coast?

Several friends and business associates have seen and been impressed by my iPhone. I know of 5 who plan on buying later in the year, as soon as their current contracts with other carriers expire. They see no point in giving $200 to T-mobile right now. I think long term growth for the iPhone is assured.

I stopped at an AT&T;store and played with an iPhone the other day and I was the only one doing so and still no assistance from the help. I'm quessing Apple is going to so kick AT&T;'s butt in the numbers that all phone manufactures are going to be looking closely at the current business model. Imagine if RIM had a way to buy a blackberry where a knowledgable assistant helped you. Nokia has just one US store last I knew and from what I've read the numbers blow away other phone retailers.

So surprise surprise the current method of having dips- - -'s just focus on getting you to sign a contract and leave is messed up. Who has not needed to call customer service at least once following the purchase of a new phone, upgrade or not.

Apple clearly needed the network but wanted to leave AT&T;out of the sales game based on the inventory levels handed over for the launch. Whatever numbers we see are from 1800 stores with just a handful of inventory and Apple's 180 odd outlets. With just this it will probally still end up being the fastest selling gizmo to break a million units.

I bought mine at a local AT&T;store at 8ish on the 29th. The clerk said they had already sold 40-45 iPhones...x 1800 stores +however many from the Apple stores = a helluva lot more than 150k. I believe Apple sold somewhere North of 350k in those first 30 hours. Easily.

Which other phone, smart or not, sold (activated) 146,000 units in 30 hrs?

blame it on the Zunes.

Let's see, 30 hours divided by 146,000 activations comes to 81 activations/minute.
How many could AT&T;handle per minute that first weekend?

yes, there is plenty missing from this - reality of the situation being one of them.

i bought my phone and my rooommate's phone Friday evening. He activated his the next day. I sat around waiting for T-Mobile to release my number until 8 pm Saturday night before just reactivating with a completely new number from AT&T;. So, had I not done that my activation may not have been counted either - it still might not have since it happened at almost 9PM on a Saturday night.

Wall St. is sad. They're hysterical little middle school girls and ignore the reality of the world before making knee jerk reactions. I hope that the people who can are buying shares of Apple while it's down at the moment. I hope you enjoy it and make plenty of money off it!

Much of today's stock price decline can be blamed on this story, but a lot of traders were recommending a short term sale of AAPL over the past couple days. There is a lot of profit taking ahead of the qrtly report tomorrow. Most of today's sellers will be back in shortly.

I ordered my iPhone late on Friday the 29th, and received it last Monday. Activating it took a couple minutes for me to be able to call out, but it took three days and two calls to T-Mobile customer service before T-Mobile released my number and incoming calls were ringing on the iPhone instead of my old Sony-Ericsson. It's not clear when AT&T;would consider my activation to have taken place.

-jcr

What I don't understand is that Verizon did not have the capacity to handle 81.11 iPhone activations per minute in the 30 hours left in the quarter?

I was in a Radio Shack the other day and in the course of 5 minutes, two people came in looking for an iPhone and the AT&T;stores nearby seem to always have someone playing with them...no lack of interest here in Boston. I think the online sales figures could be a fascinating surprise factor since none of the so called analysts with all their formulas have factored that in. I can't wait to hear the real numbers!

Their stupidity is your buying opportunity.

sorry ATT

Hope y'all are ready for the stock train wreck tomorrow. Buy those puts now, ya hear?

Charko said, "I think tomorrow, Steve Jobs should announce the up-to-date number sold. "

Sorry, that is not the way the game is played. Sales will be released thru the end of the quarter, which is usually close of business the last business day of the quarter. OK so here they will strech it a bit but, really, sales are for the quarter, not current. That number will climb and climb until Apple is ready to punch the market and pundits once again. He is not "our" Steve for nothing.

My guess is when they reach say 5 million (1/2 of the way to the end of 2008 ) that they will announce and let everyone know how far ahead they are.

When was the last time you heard about iPod sales???

ITs all a Game, and the analysis all play so badly. :-(

en

It's been hacked! It's unuseable unlless you want your phone taken over and running out of your hands by remote control... and now it's not selling!

It's a complete and utter failure !!!

Yes the above its true ... why? ... because I said so ...

Oh yeah ... and WTC 7 was destroyed by fire ...

You do believe me ... don't you??

Die Apple ... die ...

MicroTurd New World Order Lackey ....