“Apple will face increasing competition next year, but the company has never looked stronger. The iPod and related offerings are almost unchallenged in the market and they appear to be weathering the Osborn effect of pre-announcing the Intel stuff incredibly well. All indicators are that their Intel-based products will kick some serious competitive butt when they show up and some are rumored to be showing up right after the new year,” Rob “Microsoft wrote the first Mac OS” Enderle writes for TechNewsWorld.
MacDailyNews Note: In August, Rob Enderle wrote for TechNewsWorld, “Recent surveys indicate demand for Apple’s existing products is dropping like a rock as a result” of Apple’s announced switch to Intel-based processors in Macs. Full article here. In a subsequent article later that same month for TechNewsWorld, Enderle wrote, “Several folks questioned my comment that Apple demand was dropping like a rock and referred to past sales performance to refute this. Demand is measured by surveys of buying intent and I rely on surveys done for the financial firms who follow Apple. Unfortunately I don’t have the rights to share the results. But the financial reports you have seen are based on sales before Apple announced the Intel move — and the impact of that development won’t show up in the financial reports until after this quarter ends. If the studies are to be believed, the fourth quarter, in particular, should be ugly for Apple. Granted, forward-looking studies are often unreliable, but the study I’m now using did accurately predict that last quarter would be very strong.” Full article here. For the record, Apple shipped 1,236,000 Macintosh units in Apple’s fiscal Q4 05 ended September 24, 2005, following up strongly on the 1,182,000 Macs shipped in Apple’s Q3 05, and showing 48 percent growth in Mac unit shipments year over year.
Enderle continues, “I forecast Apple’s decline accurately in 1995 but since that time Apple has changed dramatically. They moved into the MP3 space and these products now largely carry the company. They revitalized their leadership and gave what was always a very strong marketing organization something to market, and they renewed focus on the user who rewarded them with increased sales. Granted they are at war with their channel and one of the most visible players, Wal-Mart, has begun to move against them. But Wal-Mart isn’t exactly widely loved and this fight may only benefit Apple long term. I’m no psychic, so I want to point out that while the trends look bad for all firms on this list [Sony, Google, IBM, Oracle, RIM] besides Apple, all are capable of avoiding disaster if they act in time — as Apple has demonstrated.”
MacDailyNews Note: Apple is no longer “at war” with Wal-Mart. Apple won. Wal-Mart also won, since the result was that they got iPods to sell. As James Covert reported for Dow Jones on November 29, 2005, “Wal-Mart was in a ‘philosophical argument’ with Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs over whether the iPod player should play music from more varied sources, Wal-Mart Senior Vice President and Treasurer Jay Fitzsimmons said. ‘He won, we lost. Now we have Nanos in the stores,’ Fitzsimmons said, referring to the latest, smallest version of the iPod.” Full article here.
Enderle’s full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Rob Enderle is a buffoon. His choice in “surveys” which supposedly indicate demand is obviously poor, his ability to forecast anything is questionable, and his knowledge of current news is dated, as the Wal-Mart comment indicates. He’s always good for a laugh, but news (supposedly non-fiction) publications that quote him and/or publish his articles (at least where he mentions Apple Computer, Inc.) should be questioned as to why they continue to use Enderle as a source if they wish to be regarded as credible. Now that Enderle is predicting Apple’s future success, we’re now a tad nervous for Apple. We’re heartened to remember that even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.
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Related articles:
Enderle: ‘2006 should be a very powerful year for Apple’ – October 27, 2005
Enderle: ‘Some people got really excited by the new iPod, but a growing number of people did not’ – October 19, 2005
Judgement Day waits for Rob ‘fourth quarter should be ugly for Apple’ Enderle – October 11, 2005
Apple Q4 05 earnings report: best quarter & best year in company history – October 11, 2005
Enderle expects black Apple Macs to debut on Wednesday, not convinced of video iPod debut – October 10, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle: ‘Microsoft wrote the first Mac OS’ – September 28, 2005
Anti-Mac FUD, the impact of Windows Vista on Apple, and Rob Enderle – September 22, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle incorrectly compares Apple’s Mac OS to iPod licensing – September 01, 2005
Enderle: ‘Surveys indicate demand for Apple’s products is dropping like a rock’ due to Intel switch – August 01, 2005
Tech Pundit Enderle: ‘fourth quarter should be ugly for Apple’ – August 09, 2005
Rob Enderle’s latest Windows Vista article is ‘vapid and incomprehensible’ – August 01, 2005
Enderle: ‘Surveys indicate demand for Apple’s products is dropping like a rock’ due to Intel switch – August 01, 2005
Enderle: ‘iPod Halo Effect is just a myth, same thing as having Paris Hilton visit Apple stores’ – May 02, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle: Apple’s Mac OS X Tiger’s main features ‘borrow heavily from Longhorn’ – May 02, 2005
Tech Pundit Enderle: ‘This year will be more difficult for Apple Computer’ and iMacs in earthquakes – January 24, 2005
That’s what happens when you do a little too much knee-jerk reaction reporting without looking deeper into the story.
So much for The Osborne Effect huh?
who are these four men on horses in my front yard?
People that still use a VCR should not do a survey on any company or product.
Them be strong words………
Then again… he was one of the first, if not the first person to break the news of the Intel switch.
They guy has interesting views though, even if they have been off target many times before. His disapointment with Windows Vista has been an honest and intriguing read.
Mike, those are equiphiles. Watch what they do with the horses.
Is this guy related in any way to the former Iraqi Minister of Information?
For GODS sake MDN stop placing the shit from this guy on your site!
He is the worlds biggest wanker and doesn’t deserve the publicity. it makes him feel good, and only encourages him to write more shit to enrage us all.
The sad part is some other wanker pays him to BAIT us!
We must stop and not post his ‘SHITE’.
I can write the crap he writes, as could any MDN watcher, so if you need the occasional pugnacious wanker to give everyone the shits and spread the bullshit, we can do that amongst ourselves!!!!
Maybe we should start a Mac debunk shopper!
Just to see what the results are and how many people react to false info!
Jesus I might have started something there, Eh!!!!
MAYBE IT IS ALREADY HAPPENING!!!!!!
Leo
Its good to know that developmentally challenged people like Enderle can function at such a high level….
But please don’t click on the link to his site. Thank you.
The iPod is carrying the company? While I agree it’s getting close–and December may be the quarter where it changes, Selling Macs makes Apple more money than selling iPods.
Apple had revenues of about 1.5 billion–43% of the total revenue–from Macs last quarter. The iPod revenue came in at 1.1 billion–about 31%.
Also, if you take the iPod and add in “Other Music Products”, whatever they might be (Yes, I know iTMS is one, but is Airport Express?), Apple’s “Music Products” come to 1.3 billion. If you include Apple Software and Peripherals, the Mac realm comes to just shy of 2.2 billion. If we apply our percentages again, that means that iPod & Related amount to 37% and Mac & Related amount to 63%.
So, at least financially, the iPod is not carrying the company. Mindshare may be another story…
What’s a VCR?
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Paul Thurrott used to be The World’s Biggest Wanker but he has lost that title.
The ‘Microsoft wrote the first Mac OS’ announcement really put Rob Enderlie over the top and clinched him the title.
Way to go Rob, you Wanker.
MW: indeed
Checkout the end of his column. He is touting how cool his painted tower is.
It is good for a nice laugh from a person that supposedly has his finger on the pulse of the industry.
dare anyone to do a Google Image Search (with Safe search off) for equiphile …
/my eyes!!!!!!!
//Sum Jung Gai: you and me, in the parking lot, 5pm. You’re f’ing dead!
No-one can deny that the iPod has given Apple more value. As Peter pointed out the iPod has increased revenue by 33 %. It’s impact on profits maybe more significant as well as increasing the visibility for Apple’s other products.
If Apple were a six cyclinder engine, then I would guess that they are currently firing on 4 cylinders. What’s missing. Probably faster laptops and home entertainment device (aka mac mini with PVR capabilities). If the Intel switch works well and Apple can meet demand, who knows what Apple can acheieve next year. Good time to hold stock.
It’s really amusing to hear Enderle say “I’m no psychic”, since he has so much in common with them:
— Both are con artists, trying to make you believe they know something they don’t.
— Both take clients money to tell them what they want to hear.
— Both spew out loads of nonsense “predictions”, confident that you’ll forget most of them soon after you paid for them.
— Both proudly point out every prediction they get right (by sheer luck), while paying no mind to the many many more predictions that didn’t even come close.
So Enderle doesn’t give himself enough credit. He is the consumate psychic! He should have his own late night TV show, “The Corporate Psychic”. He could do cold readings of financial analysts. “I sense you’re worried about a stock. Does its symbol begin with M?”
note: if you want to tout having high traffic to your website, simply deem yourself as ‘principal analyst’ of <insert your last name here> group. Remember to add your wife to the list as well. Then write ridiculous articles without knowing what your talking about.
Lets talk about an OS we dont know about.
Lets review products that we havent seen/touched yet.
This guys is a complete and total idiot – hands down.
MDN: ‘poor’ as in the quality of anything this baffoon writes.
Enderle is a turd.
The guy does have a sense of humour though. He baits you and knows it and if you followed the links it’s clear he is laughing at you.
Some of Thurrott’s comments are valid too.
“He baits you and knows it and if you followed the links it’s clear he is laughing at you.”
He is a Master Baiter.
But please don’t give him any encouragement by falling for his Mastorbatory BS
Every company in the headline of Enderlie’s piece is in direct competition with Microsoft.
Microsoft is not in the headline but it certainly could be.
Microsoft is the only major company that would benefit if all companies in the headline fade badly.
What company do you think Enderlie is consulting for this month?
oh, big one, oh it’s so bigigigi
my name is enDERL
it’s coming OUTTTTT
Have no fear Dogfriend, I do not fall for Enderle’s vagrancies or even vagaries, I know the Mac way is lush and beautiful. XP reminds me of the GDR without the queue’s for Lard.
I’m glad Enderle isn’t a financial advisor…. (right? please tell me he isn’t!).
I hope he doesn’t buy shares based on his ANALyses