Apple is on track to sell roughly 6 million units of the iPhone Duo, its first folding-screen smartphone, in 2026, according to Counterpoint Research — a figure more typical of the still-niche foldable market than of Apple’s usual handset volumes.
Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam said the estimate depends on how quickly Apple can ramp production of the new design. The iPhone Duo starts at $1,999 and is set for an October release, sitting at the top of the lineup. Preorders are scheduled to open October 16th, with availability on October 23rd, after the device was unveiled earlier in September alongside the iPhone 18 Pro family.
The forecast is one of the first public reads on sell-through for the foldable, as opposed to earlier supply-chain talk of production targets. Separate reporting has put Apple’s hoped-for availability in 2026 in a range of about 6 million to 8 million units, which would leave little slack if manufacturing slips and demand meets Counterpoint’s outlook.
Even at that scale, the Duo would be material inside the category. Market researcher IDC estimates global foldable shipments will rise 13% to 22.9 million units this year with Apple’s help, and that the segment would have declined without the Duo. Counterpoint has previously framed a roughly 6 million-unit year as enough for about a quarter of global foldable shipments, placing Apple second behind Samsung after only a partial selling season.
The launch also sits next to a stronger-than-expected start for the iPhone 18 Pro line in China. Counterpoint said Pro-edition sales were up 12% versus the iPhone 17 Pro’s early run — the first cycle in which Apple shipped the Pro models without a matching base-model upgrade, pushing upgraders toward higher-priced phones. That helped Apple take about 33% of China’s smartphone market even as Chinese brands absorbed much of a 17% year-on-year decline over the summer.
MacDailyNews Take: Apple will sell as many million iPhone Duo units this year as they can make, box, and ship.
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